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Sorry in advance if I don’t reply, the ability and energy to communicate are both fickle

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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: November 9th, 2022

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  • On the other hand, supplying rare earth elements (REEs) to the US has kept the US dependent on China.

    China needs leverage against the US to avoid embargo, but China has limited ability to project power or control governments around the world. What they do have is a massive economy and central planning. The US is nearly the opposite: they can project power and control governments, but they are weak to economic pressure because their political economy makes planning difficult – private capital controls the US government and capital demands short-term profits, they’re less willing to tunnel through temporary costs to reach a stronger position.

    The US could have foreseen the threat of a REE bottleneck decades ago and made the strategic decision to build up and maintain their own REE supply chain, but it would have hurt profits. Because China supplied cheap REEs to the US for decades, the US neglected to secure REE autonomy, and now China has that leverage over them.

    China gains leverage, in other words, by shaping the incentive structure of US capital. They do this by trading, not withholding trade.

    …this is my amateur analysis, anyway.













  • Sure, I’d press the “turn him into a good person” button, but that button doesn’t exist, it never has and never will.

    I mean, yeah, imagine if you could just “turn people good” in an instant. That’s the ideal solution. We wouldn’t even be in this mess. Just solve capitalism lmao. “God, what the fuck have I been doing? All this wealth, from other people’s labor?? No, no, hit me. I deserve it.”



  • medieval age was more egalitarian.

    I’m not sure what you mean, but medieval economies were dominated by unpaid serfdom or slavery, depending on where in the world you looked, so it’s hard to quantify how much wealth most people had. In the case of slaves, it was zero, and in the case of serfs, it depends on how you define wealth, but I would argue it was still close to zero. Although serfs could barter with each other, they had little or no “purchasing power” to go out and buy “consumer goods.” Pretty much everything they owned was hand-made by themselves or other local serfs.

    Maybe the least ambiguous metric of inequality back then would be land ownership, which was highly concentrated.

    in the end, distribution of power and geopolitical events are more shaped by religious thinking (even if it’s wrapped into modern words like globalism, human rights etc) than by real (i.e. torches and pitchforks) power, i think.

    “Real power” can suppress some ideas and boost others. The ruling class owns the news and entertainment industries, they own print, radio, TV, social media, they own academic funding, they own the intelligence agencies that plant stories, they own the political platforms that center some debates and not others. On top of that, the stolen wealth of imperial nations is good marketing. “They must be rich because of their ideas.” And then when they embargo nations like Cuba into poverty, the inverse occurs. “Their ideas led them to poverty.” As Marx put it, “The ruling ideas of each age have ever been the ideas of its ruling class.”



  • it also veers into anti-marxism further down (but it’s still a great article and I appreciate OP for posting it).

    quote

    Albert Camus broke with Jean-Paul Sartre and the French left over the most concrete political question there is: can the people alive today be treated as acceptable casualties in the pursuit of a better future?2

    Sartre and the Marxists said yes. History has a direction. The revolution requires sacrifice. Camus said no. Any system of thought that subordinates living people to a hypothetical future has already committed the foundational moral error. Once you accept that logic, there is no limiting principle. Any atrocity becomes justifiable. Any amount of present suffering can be rationalized as a necessary input to the glorious output.

    This is the structure of the AI acceleration argument. The technology will eventually benefit humanity (trillions of future humans, lives of abundance and meaning we can barely imagine), so present disruption is tolerable. Displaced workers, hollowed communities, the erosion of democratic leverage, the concentration of power in a handful of private actors who have exempted themselves from the consequences of their own project: regrettable but necessary. The expected value math works out.

    The founders of Mechanize, a startup whose stated mission was “to enable the full automation of the economy,” made the logic explicit: “the only real choice is whether to hasten this technological revolution ourselves, or to wait for others to initiate it in our absence.” Technological determinism as moral absolution. The future is fixed. Our only choice is whether to build it first. Therefore, nothing we do along the way requires justification, because the destination was never in our hands. They’re making the same argument as the Marxists who sent dissidents to the gulag.


    The author compares tech billionaires to Marxists because both want to “sacrifice now for payoff later.” But historical Marxists started tackling poverty immediately, whereas tech billionaires don’t want to tackle it ever. It’s also a false dichotomy. Whether you prioritize short or long-term is a question of how well you can predict the future. When you have robust predictions, like climate change, it can make sense to sacrifice. You just have to be realistic about your ability to predict outcomes in a chaotic world ruled by the butterfly effect.