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Cake day: 2026年8月5日

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  • I am not trying To be an apologist or whatever but the fact matter is Ed spent millions of dollars On personnel, trucks, lodging, Logistics stage design stage equipment expecting to make it back because he fronts the cost for his own tour. Contracts are signed. People are hired equipment is rented trucks are booked. Much of it is prepaid. Ed is the one holding the and the contract not really in a position to just cancel legally or financially.

    He put out a really poor statement, yeah, but he’s not in the same position the others are. Cut him a little slack. The venue owner Robert Kraft is the problem here.

    Ed needs a crisis manager


  • Ed is the one who spent tens of millions pre-paying semi trucks, Staff, Equipment, consultants on stage design, Travel and lodging and logistics. He apparently fronts the money for his own tours. People are hired, contracts are signed, things are scheduled and paid for. I don’t envy Ed. He’s not in the financial or legal position to simply cancel like the others are.

    Robert Kraft is the bad guy here. Changing the rules on what musicians can play and can’t play. Art versus censorship is a tale as old as time. The industry needs to fight back, the fans need to stand up, but I don’t think we should take it all out on Ed here. I got the vibe he wants to be on the right side, but he’s too deep right now and counting on the tour dates to cover his expenses.

    Where he messed up big-time was not hiring a crisis manager before he put out that defensive statement. He said some good things, but in the wrong tone, and I think people are reacting to the tone more than anything else.


  • Ed is the one who spent tens of millions pre-paying semi trucks, Staff, Equipment, consultants on stage design, Travel and lodging and logistics. He apparently fronts the money for his own tours. People are hired, contracts are signed, things are scheduled and paid for. I don’t envy Ed. He’s not in the financial or legal position to simply cancel like the others are.

    Robert Kraft is the bad guy here. Changing the rules on what musicians can play and can’t play. Art versus censorship is a tale as old as time. The industry needs to fight back, the fans need to stand up, but I don’t think we should take it all out on Ed here. I got the vibe he wants to be on the right side, but he’s too deep right now and counting on the tour dates to cover his expenses.


  • Look, I’m all for being on the right side, but Ed is the one who spent tens of millions on prepaid semi trucks, stage gear, countless personnel to move and run a huge production to every venue on the tour, experts to design the show. He can’t just “cancel” those things. Money is spent. People are hired. Contracts were signed.

    Robert Kraft is a bad guy here; cut Ed a LITTLE slack for not being in a legal/financial position to cancel like the others are.

    When venues start controlling what artists can perform, the industry is fucked. It’s like demonetizing “controversial” YouTube videos, but IRL in a music venue.

    If I was on my tour and this happened, I wouldn’t know what the hell to do. What he needs to do is hire a crisis manager.


  • Kraft is the bad guy here

    Ed Sheeran is in a horrible position. He has sunk $20+ million of his own money Into prepaid stage set ups, trucks to transport equipment, hired staff, and more that he can’t get back unless the ticket sales cover it.

    He doesn’t really have a sensible option of just canceling this thing.

    The promoter is also the bad guy here. That’s who made the decisions.

    I interpret Ed’s statement as saying that he is pro-Palestine, but he has So much invested in this tour that it would be financially devastating for Robert Kraft to cancel the venues.

    The problem is Kraft.




  • Don’t forget that the north has sold most of their artillery stock piles off to Russia and sent many of their troops to Ukraine. A huge part of their position was having that massive artillery stockpile aimed at Seoul. They are in a much weaker position, militarily, and much more stable with the building materials, food, and cars they’ve received in return.

    The long-term outlook isn’t very good, but for now there is less of a need for military presence and war preparation on the peninsula.



  • Bro, what strawman are you debating? Literally if the Local group you’re interested in is hosted on Facebook, and there’s no replacement available, then, at least in the short term, it is, by definition, irreplaceable.

    Example: There’s a local mountain biking group. They exclusively interact and coordinate through a Facebook page. If I want to interact and ride with them, I have to go to Facebook. Plenty of groups set up all their stuff on Facebook, and it’s not really possible to get them all to move platforms as much as we would want them to.

    That’s the spirit of what OP is saying. If the thing is on Facebook, and you want to do the thing, you have to go to Facebook.


  • Bro, what strawman are you debating? Literally if the Local group you’re interested in is hosted on Facebook, and there’s no replacement available, Then, at least in the short term, it is, by definition, irreplaceable.

    Example: There’s a local mountain biking group. They exclusively interact and coordinate through a Facebook page. If I want to interact and ride with them, I have to go to Facebook.

    Plenty of groups set up all their stuff on Facebook, and it’s not really possible to get them all to move platforms as much as we would want them to.




  • They say “contains less than 0.5%” because that’s the cutoff that makes something legally beer. It more than likely has none, much of the time. That’s just the law (US):

    > 0.5% it’s beer and subject to alcohol laws

    < 0.5% it’s not beer, technically a food

    So they label it as <0.5% simply to show that it’s in the latter category. This creates a lot of confusion for some reason.

    Even the grocers (and even manufacturers) get it all messed up. Hell, half the brands don’t have required nutritional info (beer doesn’t need it, soda does) but the real problem is that:

    The regulatory agencies are captured and don’t do shit anymore. TECHNICALLY the FDA should be stepping in and making them put full nutritional information on all the brands of NA “beer” and making sure it is labeled and sold like a soda.

    But the larger companies that sell it are just misclassifying it and creating problems to be as lazy and risk avoidant as possible.


  • They say “contains less than 0.5%” because that’s the cutoff that makes something legally beer. It more than likely has none, much of the time. That’s just the law (US):

    > 0.5% it’s beer and subject to alcohol laws

    < 0.5% it’s not beer, technically a soda or something

    So they label it as <0.5% simply to show that it’s in the latter category. This creates a lot of confusion for some reason.

    Even the grocers (and even manufacturers) get it all messed up. Hell, half the brands don’t have required nutritional info (beer doesn’t need it, soda does) but the real problem is that:

    The regulatory agencies are captured and don’t do shit anymore. TECHNICALLY the FDA should be stepping in and making them put full nutritional information on all the brands of NA “beer” and making sure it is labeled and sold like a soda.

    But the larger companies that sell it are just misclassifying it and creating problems to be as lazy and risk avoidant as possible.

    Another counter example that disproves the misunderstanding is kombucha. Kombucha has naturally occurring alcohol, but it’s not classified as some other category. The legal categories are “Alcoholic beverage” Or “Not alcoholic beverage” and it’s less than 0.5% so it’s “not alcoholic beverage” and therefore is available for anyone to buy and has nutritional information on the container.

    Similarly, NA “beer” should have the full nutritional information on the can and be sold to anyone. It just “feels” like it should be different somehow, and no one is updating or enforcing policies. You might notice that none of them actually say, “beer.”


  • They say “contains less than 0.5%” because that’s the cutoff that makes something legally beer. It more than likely has none, much of the time. That’s just the law (US):

    0.5% it’s beer and subject to laws < 0.5% it’s not beer, technically a soda or something

    So they label it as <0.5% simply to show that it’s in the latter category

    But the grocers just do whatever. Hell, half the brands don’t have required nutritional info (beer doesn’t need it, soda does) but the real problem is that:

    The regulatory agencies are captured and don’t do shit anymore. TECHNICALLY the FDA should be stepping in and making them put full nutritional information on all the brands of NA “beer” and making sure it is labeled and sold like a soda.

    But the larger companies that sell it are just misclassifying it and creating problems to be as lazy and risk avoidant as possible.


  • They say “contains less than 0.5%” because that’s the cutoff that makes something legally beer. It more than likely has none, much of the time. That’s just the law (US):

    0.5% it’s beer and subject to laws < 0.5% it’s not beer, technically a soda or something

    So they label it as <0.5% simply to show that it’s in the latter category

    But the grocers just do whatever. Hell, half the brands don’t have required nutritional info (beer doesn’t need it, soda does) but the real problem is that:

    The regulatory agencies are captured and don’t do shit anymore. TECHNICALLY the FDA should be stepping in and making them put full nutritional information on all the brands of NA “beer” and making sure it is labeled and sold like a soda.

    But the larger companies that sell it are just misclassifying it and creating problems to be as lazy and risk avoidant as possible.



  • Play tectonics is pretty well studied, plus you got the whole part where the sun becomes a red giant and annihilates the planet. I bet Randall worked it out pretty well.

    Back of the envelope it’s about 10^17 seconds, which works out a few billion years. He drew it with some wiggle area, so anywhere from hundreds of millions to several billions which covers the range of plate tectonics and the Earth being consumed by the sun.

    So it seems pretty accurate