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Cake day: February 5th, 2025

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  • Mass protests are a sign that the dictator doesn’t have control over the people and often moves the pillars of power away from them. Having a large enough protest of at least 3.5% of a population is a key tipping point.

    Regimes gain power when ordinary citizens consent to their rule. Nonviolent demonstrations withdraw that consent. No regime can survive when too many people refuse to obey the regime’s orders.

    3.5% of the population peacefully protesting is so visible that no one can ignore them and at that scale, most soldiers have no desire to suppress the protesters because they include family, friends, coworkers, and neighbors - so it prevents the armed forces from allying with the dictator.