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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • It’s a massive gain for Australia. When they lost their moderate seats to the Teals, the party room became disproportionately alt-right despite existing in a voting system that demands moderates.

    The cooker influence told them that Trumpism was the way forward and to win government again, when that only worked by disenfranchising voters. When everyone votes, a political culture that thrives on the extreme works the opposite.

    American politicians need to go overboard to compete for attention just to get people to turn up and vote based on anger and fear, the people in the middle of the spectrum get disenfranchised more as both two-party single vote options stretch further from them to garner good or bad attention. This results in no vote, which is nowhere near as bad as a vote transferring to the opposition.

    In a mandatory/preference country, hyperbole and extremism costs you the vote and because they have to vote still, your lost vote goes to the opposition and is a net change of -2 votes. 1 less vote + 1 opposition gained vote.

    Peter Dutton was the leader amongst the right wing faction of the party when they had the moderate Liberal members, when Turnbull lost the leadership it was due to an internal power struggle from the right wing of the party room. At the time Morrison won because he was perceived to be both a moderate and somewhat conservative, when the room included the former Teal seat moderates they kept the leadership from going more fringe with Dutton.

    Without the moderate members that lost to the Teals, the right wing of the Liberal Party had the majority of the party room and they put their leader in charge despite what happened in American being counter and unrepeatable to our much better voting system.

    Now that the Liberal party has gotten a proper swift kick up the bum for letting themselves shift too far from center, with the leader changed in the process, if they have any sense they will realise how much they got wrong or they’ll never win another election.

    They have no choice now but to level and rebuilt their party, or the Commonwealth will become like Victoria and WA, having no second party option while the rusted on Liberal voters cost everyone the opportunity of a new second party emerging.