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Cake day: 2025年9月27日

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  • SpaceX was founded in 2002, and announced Falcon 9 in 2005. By 2010 they launched, in 2013 they started propulsive landing experiments, and in 2015/16 they landed on a pad / a drone ship. About 13 years from founding to reuse, and ten years from F9 announcement to reuse.

    Blue Origin was founded in 2000, declared first stage reuse a priority in 2013, announced New Glenn in 2016, launched in early 2025, and landed in late 2025. 25 years from founding to reuse, and 9 years from NG announcement to reuse.

    I guess the difference is that SpaceX was making money in those intervening years, and Blue was content to, uh, do a lot of simulations I guess.





  • So that’s a proposed upgrade from about 2,460 kN to 2,847 kN per BE-4, or about 15-16%. If nothing else it’ll help NG do something other than crawl upwards off the pad. (For reference, Wikipedia says Raptor 1 was 1,810 kN, R2 is 2,260 kN, and R3 will be 2,750 kN.)

    Also, this part about the heavy variant just bugs me:

    The vehicle carries over 70 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, over 14 metric tons direct to geosynchronous orbit, and over 20 metric tons to trans-lunar injection. Additionally, the 9x4 vehicle will feature a larger 8.7-meter fairing.

    Rocket companies saying their paper rockets do something (in the present tense) is terrible. It does nothing yet. It’s a design, not a vehicle. But BO can’t even keep that present-future tense consistent within the same paragraph.





  • I understand your sentiment, but a lot of that isn’t right.

    Early iPhone apps were going for $10-20. So many developers being okay with just data harvesting plus so many devices out there made the $0.99 / free with ads model dominate – people got used to “free” apps from the big guys (Facebook, Google, whoever).

    iOS apps are pretty resilient to OS updates. They usually only totally break when huge changes happen (dropping 32-bit support, etc) and those happen once a decade.

    Tons of Windows software didn’t survive the 3.1 to 95 transition. A bunch died on 98 to XP, too. In the Apple world, a lot got left behind on the Mac when they went from PowerPC to Intel processors in 2007, or when they dropped 32-bit libraries.


  • In the revolutionary context, the extra days were all piled into the end of the year. Kind of a special short month, or more realistically a set of days not in a month. But yeah, leap days were added there when necessary.

    Twelve months of five weeks of six days plus five or six days at the end for Christmas and New Years would absolutely rule. As long as weeks became 4+2 and not 5+1, anyway. I say we drop Thursdays and just keep the rest of the day names, they’re fine.





  • The trouble with appeasement is that you’re eventually pushed to the point where you won’t cave anymore. You say no. And they punish you for it.

    And now, all that appeasement has meant nothing. You sold your soul, you didn’t fight back, you did damage to yourself or your reputation or your customers or whatever. But you’re right where you would have been if you didn’t appease at all.

    You have an enemy. If you didn’t, they wouldn’t be making you do terrible things. Do you want to tell them no to their face now? Or after they’ve recruited you into their scheme for years?

    It’s sunk cost fallacy as international strategy and it’s terrible.






  • Gosh, you’re right. I was already primed to hate her. By her and her husband’s repeated statements that people I love should not exist.

    I genuinely believe that enforced decorum benefits the powerful. “I get to do whatever I want without consequence but you’re terrible for saying something mean to me” is a thing an oppressor says.