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Cake day: November 19th, 2023

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  • No. In this specific situation where everyone else has already slipped the tariffs?

    China is the biggest target, it hasn’t been isolated from the world economy or the free trade system. America is making an attempt to isolate china but how many countries will play along?

    What soft power they retain will be aimed at “traditional values” crowd

    Fair enough. But there is more to soft power than just cultural factors. The reliability of the American market itself is in question, and this is not a good thing. America going with fascist aesthetics is nowhere near as America trying to interfere with the global gravy train.

    It is impossible to convince the Europeans to side with the global south out of the goodness of their hearts (which they don’t have). However, fucking with their wallets will cause everyone except the most ardent European hitlerites to rethink their relationship with America.


  • Russia has a low unemployment rate and a strong trade surplus, which are the 2 macroeconomics factors that are really important. The former means that they are running their economy close to its physical limits, the latter means that their financial position wrt other countries is improving over time.

    The government deficit itself is not really so important, since the conservation of money during trading means that

    Net debt of Russian private sector + net debt of Russian government + net debt of rest of world to Russia = 0

    Since money can only flow between these 3 sectors.

    So as long as there is a trade surplus, the “net debt of rest of world to russia” is increasing, and this can be divided between the government or the private sector.

    As a side note, this is why austerity efforts are always doomed. Any debt that the government isn’t picking up is picked up by the private sector. Only actual way to reduce debts is by fixing the trade balance.



  • I think it would be a mistake to view China as isolated in this. First of all, Russia, Vietnam and Iran are pretty strong partners to have. Secondly, there is the BRICS bloc, which has been growing largely due to American abuses of the international finance system. America flip flopping so hard on tariffs and then extorting every country in the world will no doubt cause American soft power to decline rapidly in the coming years as countries grow weary.

    Also, on a purely military and industrial basis, China outclasses the whole of the west by such a margin that there really isn’t anything to worry about. China of all countries cannot have its industries decimated short of nuclear strikes.






  • I would have defended against agreeing to specifically target civilians, yes.

    This is only something that you have assumed that other people want. Dismantling a settler colonial state is not genocide, on the contrary, it prevents future genocides. And obviously, a settler state can only be dismantled through violent forceful actions, especially against those who seek to uphold it. Any pretenses otherwise are just as delusional as the belief that Nazi Germany could have been destroyed without killing the millions of soldiers of the Wehrmacht who fanatically defended the regime to the very end.

    Or in other terms, there are no wars against the leaders, the very concept is nonsensical. Leaders don’t fight wars, soldiers do.




  • Wouldn’t it have been better to fatwa specific Israeli leaders instead of the entire country that is full of civilians who didn’t cause this?

    I hate this excuse liberals keep making, either to whitewash the actions of nations that have lost their minds, or to do cringe “I hate the government not the people” sthicks.

    The government doesn’t fall from the heavens. The Israeli leaders, just like the Americans or Nazis did not come out of nowhere and cause mass hypnosis amongst the innocent populations whose only crime was to be too weak to resist hypnosis. These leaders emerged from the population. They were supported by the population before they acquired legislative/executive power (that’s how you aquire the power in the first place). Their commands mean nothing if the population doesn’t go along with it. These leaders are leaders of nations only so long as they represent the wills of their nations, and the will of their nations is to kill, to loot and to worship their capitalist masters.

    No man, and I mean none at all rules alone. One comes to realise this truth when one converses directly with the supposed innocents in America, or Germany or Israel. These people by and large know that their governments are involved in genocide (at this point, who isn’t aware?), and if they aren’t actively cheering it on, at the minimum they are going along with it.



  • When has Trump being some geo-political mastermind able to bully other countries into submission been anything but a conservative fantasy?

    You don’t have to be a geo-political genius to do anything if this. Trump’s strategies are crude, but they work because the Europeans are vassals of America.

    To say that they don’t have the ability to resist just giving away their industries is bizzare.

    It’s not as if they are going to airlift their factories and plop them onto America. However, Europeans are panicking over these tariffs and are even trying turn towards china to get access to markers. If Europeans fail to gain Chinese favor, their industrial decline will further accelerate and American capital will be rid of a competitor capital. It could then expand even further into Europe (American FDI is already 1/3rd the size of the European stock market).

    but it’s not in any danger of collapsing anytime soon. To say otherwise just feels like wishful thinking.

    I would respectfully disagree. The foundations of the EU have been rapidly rotting ever since covid (and were slowly rotting since the GFC). After the crises in 2008, 2014, then 2020, then 2022 (ukraine and nordstream), there are only so many shocks that the EU can take before the populists dismantle it.



  • Tell them to just tank their economies and ruin their capitalist class and that speech switches to the importance of nationalism and self-sufficiency in a heartbeat.

    They can and are switching to talk of nationalism and self-sufficiency. They don’t have the slightest ability to back it up at all. And experience shows that Trump gets what he wants while liberals and Europeans fold like paper, because neither of them are willing or capable of building the infrastructure necessary to actually be self sufficient and fight against Trump’s erratic bullying. There is a very real possibility that America plaza accords the EU because just like Japan, a vassal state does not have the right to pursue a genuinely nationalistic path (not that I would prefer European nationalism).

    In fact, if the EU wanted to pursue actual self sufficiency, they would have started 10 years ago, abandoned neoliberalism and implemented a comprehensive industrial policy (while developing European alternatives to American tech). Instead, we are seeing a wide spread austerity and de-industrialization program unprecedented since the thatcherism.



  • “We are fast approaching temperature levels – 1.5C, 2C, 3C – where insurers will no longer be able to offer coverage for many of these risks,” he said. “The math breaks down: the premiums required exceed what people or companies can pay. This is already happening. Entire regions are becoming uninsurable.” He cited companies ending home insurance in California due to wildfires.

    This is either a call for governments to start subsidising insurance premiums, or a way of grabbing attention to the risk management company this guy is part of. His entire analysis for why climate change will make capitalism enviable is that insurance premiums will rise too much. But not being able to afford insurance is the last thing you will notice after having your food production and energy systems decimated.