• 113 Posts
  • 5.9K Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: June 18th, 2023

help-circle


  • Maga shithawks jump on the conflict

    If USA attack Iran together with Israel, Iran doesn’t stand a chance. It will be a very short war like when USA invaded Iraq.

    Escalation spreads to Iraq

    There is no logical path for that.

    Russia leans in heavily

    Russian military is a joke now, they have their hands more than full in Ukraine.

    The E.U. steps in under the guise of defence

    That doesn’t make much sense, but let’s say there is a “whatever” reason. That would just make the defeat of Iran even quicker.

    Ukraine gets more intense as China assists Russia more openly

    China has kept it’s distance from the conflict, and I don’t think China wants to actively increase instability in a world where they are making so much progress. Instability is bad for business. The way China has behaved NOT helping Russia much for 3 years, shows they would much rather participate in deescalation.

    While things are peaking elsewhere, the PRC makes a move on Taiwan.

    This is probably your best point IMO, but as I see it, China has to wait at least 5 more likely 10, until China has independent chip production that at a minimum matches Taiwan and the west. At this point in time, an invasion of Taiwan would be very disruptive to many of the industries that are most important to China.
    Even then it’s a very big question if China thinks it’s worth the enormous diplomatic crisis that would follow.

    So all in all, I don’t really see your thought experiment having much risk of leading to a world war.
    Even though other scenarios might exist, I don’t really see that as a risk we should worry too much about.
    Putin going even more crazy and using nukes is probably the biggest danger the world is facing ATM. Gaza is next to irrelevant by comparison.
    But I suspect if Putin uses nukes, many of his allies will abandon him. And he will become a valid target for the entire world, and the Russian federation will not be allowed to survive.



  • I agree that there are problems with Islam extremists, just as there are problems with other extremists. But obviously we should not solve the problem by becoming the problem ourselves. In Gaza Israel is the extremist, and it is insane that Israel is allowed to control it like it was some sort of criminal ghetto prison.
    As I see it, Israel is a failed experiment, and the countries behind it need to step in and resolve the situation and at a minimum stop further Israeli settlements.
















  • Absolutely, if Elon had been a normal CEO, Tesla would probably still be riding on the reputation they had few years ago.
    What I’m saying is that it will be hard for Tesla to make a comeback, even if they somehow manage to restore the name.
    They are no longer a technology leader, and they aren’t leading on value either, which makes Tesla just one among many options.
    And it seems they can’t keep up with the competition anymore, now that the traditional auto makers have learned the basics of making a good EV. And China is so far ahead on batteries and Fast Charging it isn’t even funny.
    Both BYD and CATL have batteries that can charge 3 times faster than the fastest Tesla!

    In USA Tesla is protected by tariffs, So USA has lower competition, but in Europe and China, I don’t think Tesla has much of a future, (EU has 3 times as many BEV models to choose from than USA!) and even USA will be a a huge uphill struggle, because they have such poor brand recognition.
    I don’t think Musk can turn Tesla around, the claimed options to do that are RoboTaxi, and AI and robots. But Tesla is not even close to be leading in any of those fields. So Tesla will be a company with huge R&D costs, but little money coming in. Unless Musk can keep conning new investors of course.