Some interesting analysis, imv, particularly when it comes to the rise of Gen Z and the diversity within that generation. For example,
Every year, the electorate that made the old duopoly possible shrinks, and the electorate in which the Greens poll in the 30s grows. Over time, this should aid the Greens in the seats where progressive Gen Z concentrates, which is to say the inner urban seats they already contest and a widening ring of middle suburban seats with heavy renter and student populations. The generational tide is the strongest structural argument that the Greens’ long plateau eventually breaks upwards.
But even here, a qualifier is required, and it is an important one.
Gen Z is not only the most left-leaning generation in Australian history. It is also the most diverse. A very large share of this cohort are the children of migrants, or migrants themselves, and through migration alone that share will keep growing. The overseas born and second-generation component of Gen Z behaves differently from its Anglo and established counterpart. It leans left, but it leans Labor.
Well yes and no. As Kos explained in the article, The Greens voter base is a mix of older and younger educated voters. For the young cohort, who are less financially stable, it’s generally the opposite - they see hardline opposition, even at their own expense, as the only realistic path towards serious major party legislation that will actually have a positive impact on their future. People sometimes make the mistake of assuming low income voters as desperate and willing to take the first hand out they can get, but they also have nothing to lose. That mentality is also why those on the right are willing to gamble with One Nation.