The sombre mien—that’s what stayed with me. On Saturday, Mark Carney looked less like a prime minister briefing media on trade negotiations than a wartime leader telling his country a feared turn had finally arrived and preparing them for a long ordeal. The intense, all-out effort to stop crushing new tariffs had failed, with Carney grimly explaining that the United States insists on “short-term transactions” rather than “long-term partnerships” and that its commitments could no longer be assumed to hold.
American demands reportedly went well beyond tariffs, market access, and sectoral protections. They targeted Canada’s freedom to set domestic cultural policy, interpret agreements it had already signed, and conduct trade relations with third countries. The loss of our sovereignty was too high a price for preserving economic integration. What prime minister would accept Canada becoming a vassal state on his watch? With the collapse of talks, and Carney describing the country as being “attacked,” it’s hard not to feel like we have crossed into a different moment—that we are living in a slightly darker reality.
Throughout the weekend, The Walrus spoke to economists, policy experts, and political observers about what exactly has changed and what this new period might demand of Canada.
Impeachment and invoking the 25th are 2 different things.
Unless both Houses go Democrat (and the few Republican dissenters who support the Democrats outnumber Democrats who dissent or abstain), there will be no impeachment.
less than 2 Houses = no impeachment, no matter what the sentiments of every Democrat in the 2 Houses are
If the Democrats gain both Houses they could impeach Trump, and IIUC, Vamce too, and in the process make the House Speaker acting President.
This was kind of the situation in 2019 and 2020. IIUC, if Trump and Pence were removed from office by death, impeachment, or resignation, Nancy Pelosi would have become the acting US President.
wp:List of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives elections#January 2019
Today, if Mike Johnson could rally support from even 10% of GOPers in either House, he could probably have both Trump and Vance removed.
wp:List of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives electionsOctober 2023
that might be more tempting for Congressional Republicans—not Vance replacing Trump, but Johnson getting rid of both of them, becoming acting President, getting rid of Hegseth and other anchors—or demoting them—and replacing them with more Reps and Senators.
So until November, to threaten Trump with impeachment is to blow smoke, as those who want to make such threats have less than 70 days from now until the mid-terms.
Again, after mid-terms, if both Houses go Democrat, there is a good chance that Trump, and perhaps Vance, will be impeached and in 2027 we might have a Democrat as acting President, who could use that position in the 2028 primaries to get nominated, and be elected President in 2028, and since we Americans and Canadians tend to love our incumbents, again in 2032.
In that, Vance would be as much out of the picture as Trump—probably more so. Who here remembers Spiro Agnew, Alexander Haig, Dan Quayle, or Pat Buchanan?
If the Democrats win < 2 Houses, it’s the same old same old. Republican Congressmen (and they’re mostly men) and Cabinet secretaries get another 2 years—or in some cases 6 years—to fuck around, as will Trump and Vance.
What will Vance offer these Republicans, particularly after 70 days from now? He has no power other than what the President gives him, and has few, if any, significant supporters that don’t also support Trump or the GOP.
Do you think that Peter Thiel will support Vance trying to become President? Again, what will Thiel get from Vance that he’s not already getting from Trump, Johnson, McConnell, or for that matter, wp:Darline Graham (Lindsey’s sister).
Also, what if Trump right now accused Vance of perfidy, banned him from the White House, ordered all federal buildings to ban his entry, banned his secretaries from communicating with him, and requested that Congress impeach him so he could have another—say Rubio, DeSantis, MTG, Jeb Bush, Johnson, or even Bernie Sanders as VP?
If the Democrats could impeach, they would have already. They tried to in the relatively recent past.
As if Vance doesn’t have any skeletons in his closet. Trump supporters don’t care, and most Trump-haters wouldn’t support any GOPer, including Vance.
People have flung many accusations at Trump that didn’t stick that much because the proof, while somewhat existent, wasn’t overwhelming.
Did Trump rape women? Where are the videos, the police reports and DNA taken soon after the alleged rapes, and the proof of no malice (or just malice) or of no political (or just political) interests of the informants?
Did he attempt a coup in January 2021? He said some things—Trump says a lot of things—he even praised Hillary Clinton once or maybe twice (or maybe more), and some of the demonstrators got carried away—like some BLM protesters did in their riots.
There was no coup attempt. The leftist corporate fake news just wants to create trouble for him.
Jeffery Epstein? He never really knew the guy. The issue is waning.
See how easy that was?
Now imagine Fox and others exposing accusations by Vance as fake.
I could see it now: a sign that says “Hang J.D. Vance!”
It’s a dip. All US Presidents have their dips.
Besides, many people who are polled are too lazy to vote, and there is voter suppression.
Two years from now, maybe 5% of all GOP Congressmen will be dead, about 1/3rd of GOP senators will have 4 years to go, and all will have had (≤) 24 months to prepare explanations and/or act in Congress in ways to retain voter support, even if it means getting more bold with Trump.
They can work it out.
So Vance is going to fight Rubio? They aren’t going to work together in overthrowing Trump?
He’s got fewer than 70 days. After that, where Trump goes, so does Vance (i.e. again, if Trump is impeachable, so will be Vance).
Which makes him more vulnerable.
If Trump was to trash-talk Vance—as he did Chris Christie, but only worse, maybe far worse as Trump might see Vance as more a threat than Christie—what would Vance do but grin and bear it, while the other secretaries fake laugh (maybe genuinely laugh) at Trump’s jokes and add to the ridicule in the media?
What if Trump publicly walked over and stabbed Vance in the gut?
“That’s what I do to traitors!”
Maybe Vance would be the one arrested, interrogated, and maybe charged.
wp:Finis L. Bates#Ford v. The Chicago Daily Tribune
May 1916 was 110 years and 3 months ago.
FWIW, 11 months later, the US entered WWI.
That looks like something Hasan Piker or Vaush would say.
More clear-headed than Rubio or Bessant?
My predictions?
.1. If Vance tries to get Trump to resign or be removed by impeachment and/or the 25th, Vance will be sidelined by history.
.2. If Vance grins and bears it, tries no coup, and indeed helps to protect the President to the very end, it might have one of 3 results:
.a. Trump dies and Vance becomes VP, and with it becomes the candidate with the best chance of winning in the 2028 GOP primaries.
.b. Trump lives, but becomes a vegetable. If that happens, Vance and the Cabinet run things together, and Vance still has the best chance for the 2028 nomination.
In either case, the Democrats will have their primaries in 2028. If history is a guide, progressives will be sidelined, but supporters of the progressives will rally around the lesser evil, perhaps he being Gavin Newsom.
Gavin Newsom versus J.D. Vance.
I think Newsom will win, but not win 5% more than J.D. Vance.
I doubt that either MTG or Tucker Carlson will run as independents.
some predictions I made in 17 October 2020:
Fiction and Fictional Settings Wiki:Miraheze:User:DMBFFF/Some predictions for some of the 2020 elections
This posted 15:59 UTC (11:59 EDT), Friday, 28 August 2026.