I pay attention to a lot of off the wall information sources but unfortunately people tend to ignore me. (For example I heard about this mystery illness in China in December 2019 - but you know I was just being an alarmist.) I regularly mention topics and will be blown off by my friends but frustratingly a year or two later Jon Oliver will do a special on that very subject and the same people will suddenly care about it and excitedly explain it to me. Because now they know all about it and are interested. And don’t mistake me. I’m glad Jon Oliver is making some of these topics mainstream but it’s endlessly infuriating that it takes an HBO funded comedian to allow the people around me to open their minds enough to talk about the topics I care about. Even if they never acknowledge these things have been my special interests for-fucking-ever.
Can best be described as cassandraic
It’s pretty good, but I still only believe things with evidence because if you’re wrong once, it will butterfly effect all over your life.
Mostly because the typicals in your life think you don’t deserve any benefits from your mind, only downsides, and wait for the moment you stumble to dogpile you and discount anything you said before and ever say again.
Validation biais?
Does this count for adhd as well? I feel like I’ve definitely felt like this before. Predict what’s going to happen, tell them not to do it. They do it anyway, shit falls apart. Rinse and repeat.
I feel like with AuDHD it’s more intense and more correct with the pattern recognition
I think that’s just intelligence.
Self fulfilling prophecy doesn’t count
My selection bias is unparalleled
I was going to say confirmation bias, but selection works too.
My intuition is fantastic, I trust my gut on everything because it’s never let me down. I think it’s amazing how countless generations before me were able to hone this instinct to become what it is today. Those that ignored these feelings ended up paying for it with their lives, while those who listened managed to pass on their genes, eventually passing the trait to those of us here today.
Which is why when I get a bad feeling about something, I sometimes imagine a crowd of my foremothers/forefathers standing there going, “GO! GET OUT! NOW!” as if they can see the danger that I can’t.
As to neurodivergence, I’ve spent a lot of time learning to know myself. I wouldn’t be surprised if being different from most folks causes a lot of us to self-reflect. For me, that self-reflection includes evaluating what I feel and why I might be feeling it. Having different mental filters for stimuli, I know for a fact that I consciously recognize things that most people don’t - usually little visual details, or background sounds. Surely, there’s far more that my subconscious brain is picking up on that I am not consciously aware of. So when I overwhelmingly get the sensation that something is wrong, I react - usually either by investigating what is causing it (if I’m stuck somewhere, like at work), or by leaving the situation (if I’m in a public place that I can freely leave.)
(Slight tangent) Sometimes I think of us as “the canaries in the coalmine” so to speak. With our different sensory experiences, we might be the first people to notice distressing stimuli, but that doesn’t mean we’re the only ones affected. For example, how background traffic noise increases stress levels - everyone can feel the effect, sometimes without knowing why. But usually it’s us neurodivergent folk that are the first to say, “My god, it’s way too loud here!” And we’re right. If it’s too loud for us, it’s probably too loud for others too - they just don’t consciously realize it yet.
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Intuition or just highly tuned pattern recognition?
Or specifically seeing things that break the pattern, even if only slightly?
I find four leaf clovers all the time they just pop out to me in my peripheral vision
Is there a difference?
Nope.
Intuition is a word for thoughts that we don’t experience consciously until they’re fully formed. Large language models only have access to intuition, which is why they’re so racist. They always say the first thing that pops into their head, and they can’t explain why they thought of it except by guessing.
Incorrect.
LLMs do not have “thoughts” or “intuition” by any definition.
They organise tokens into groups based on statistical probability, and convert those tokens into words and sentences.
They can explain why they resolved a given answer, but he answer is always unsatisfying: this accumulation of tokens seemed to be the most likely response based on my probability matrix.
The problem you’re trying to convey is that humans can not summarise or read or understand a probability matrix with many billions of parameters.
They organise tokens into groups based on statistical probability, and convert those tokens into words and sentences.
Yeah, that’s the way your brain works when you’re not paying attention. That’s why your dreams are like that. It’s just a bunch of vaguely probable stuff based on your daily experiences.
humans can not summarise or read or understand a probability matrix with many billions of parameters.
Uhhhhh, yeah they can. The human brain has 86 billion neurons. If you put all 86 billion of those neurons and their connections into a matrix, you get a mathematical representation of the human brain’s information processing. You’re running the calculations on all 86 billion neuron matrix every second, manually, one neuron at a time.
Like, I’m guessing you’re not really a math person, so let Me explain in simple terms: multiplication is just a shorter way to do addition, right? 6 * 5 is just 6+6+6+6+6, collapsed down. So if you have a 10 year old kid who can count out all the numbers one by one, and a computer that knows some computational tricks to figure out 6 * 5, that’s the same, right?
So your neurons in your brain are biological computers, and that makes them really energy efficient. Electronic computers kinda suck at that efficient stuff. So where your neurons can manually calculate 86 billion parameters many times a second, a computer has to use shortcuts. And vector cross-multiplication is just a more efficient way for a computer to calculate neuron firings. The abstract mathematical operations are the same in principle.
Now there are a lot of differences between your brain and an LLM, and I’ll be happy to explain them. But matrix multiplication is not one of them. That’s stinky nonsense.
Humans can not read or understand the probability matrix in which an LLM stores its parameters.
Neither can an LLM. Try asking ChatGPT to run a matrix cross-multiplication, it sucks as badly as if you tried to do it without any paper.
An LLM can’t read the matrix in which it stores its own parameters?
That’s like saying a human can’t read the neurons in their own brain. Sure, looking at them through a microscope, we can not.
You don’t seem to have any idea what you’re talking about.
This
I am cursed with people asking my advice, my advice being correct, them failing to heed my advice to their detriment. Time after time. People value my judgment, because it is pretty good, then proceed to do the opposite of it.
That probably sounds self absorbed, but it’s not like I’m an oracle or anything. It’s just usually fairly obvious stuff, but people are often irrational and do wacky things.
I had a coworker like this. Always asking me for advice, then going out and doing the opposite. At every turn, she asked me what she should do, and at every turn, she did something else.
She ended up cheating on her husband by going after an ex who had just got out of prison. It was at that point where I (metaphorically) threw my hands in the air and was done. I’m not going to keep wasting my energy trying to help someone who insists on ignoring me and making stupid decisions all the time. She clearly had her mind already made up, there’s no need to drag me into it.
People like that aren’t asking for advice, they have already decided and want validation/permission for the choice they already made.
You’re absolutely right. I didn’t have that kind of insight at 19, but I’ve learned to recognize people like that in the years since. Which is great, because I definitely don’t have the patience for that nonsense anymore.
Yep, it’s our curse, like Cassandra.
Oh boy, are you me? I’ve spent most of my life feeling like Cassandra. I’m not even particularly smart, but it’s like a lot of people just can’t see the incredibly obvious and inevitable outcomes of their actions?
I feel your frustration. I felt the same way about parenting. The number of “you’ll understand when you’re a parent” responses I got was depressing. Guess what, now I have a child to apply it on, my advice works awesomely 90% of the time.
Really hoping I’m wrong about Gen X retirement en masse single handily collapsing the stock exchange causing the worst financial crisis to date.
I haven’t peeped any numbers lately but the aging work force and passive investments into etf portfolios with nowhere near the cash reserves to cover the draw down once the generation of 6-10 children become dependent on the 1-3 children generation lol
Basically a race between the ai bubble and the silver tsunami at this point pain all around
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Pretty sure if it’s true that the 1% own 80% of the stock market, that’s a far bigger problem. Gen X is just a drop in the bucket by comparison.
More like the publicly traded mega corps depend on people / the market wanting to buy their stock to inflate the value of their shares with speculative claims about their products cough artificial intelligence so they can leverage their ownership of that asset.
Yeah the means of production being owned by the billionaires is a problem but it isn’t what’s going to gut people’s retirement funds lol
You shouldn’t forget that you can not map generations to the real world that easily. It is not one year and BOOM gen x is retired. It’s an ever ongoing gradual change.
We’ve been living the gradual creep for years it’s been staved off my policy that kicks the can down the road push retirement ages further out and incentivizing delaying benefits as long as possible or getting penalized for early retirement.
It doesn’t have to happen “all at once” as soon as market participation is in net divestment mode fund manager’s like Blackrock and vanguard who’s passive etf strategy is give us money = buy stock they will be forced to divest to cover sell orders causing a cascade
Yes, but that’s a different root cause than “a generation retires”.
Sorry you misunderstood the importance of generation retires for households that had many more children become financial burden on following households that had much fewer children it doesn’t math lol
I’ve had similar suspicions. The golden rule that once something becomes popular, it turns to shit. For the prior generations it was exhausting social systems. For the current generations it’s stock market based funds.
I’m thinking probably if you weren’t heavily invested into this before about 2015-2020 era, then you’re probably going to be late to benefit from it before whatever disasters await. More definitely the whole memestock era was a high water mark.
Also as the first reply said, it’s not rigidly defined generations. Gen-X is a relatively small generation. The first half of millennials are probably just as big if not more invested into stocks. Public discourse has pinned millennials as close to gen-z and memory holed that the bulk of millennials are 40 give or take a few years. The difference between the two halves is by a wide margin.
Gen-X is only a few years away from drawing from their investments and becoming net spenders. Many of them would already be doing so. The ones who retired early.
Go to a rural town in Utah. Listen to a medium/long conversation between two local people at a gas station or diner etc. Drive to another rural town. Start a conversation the exact same way you just saw and play the role of whoever started the conversation.
There is a non-zero chance the entire new conversation will replicate the original one verbatim even down to the pauses, cadence, and inflections of the original conversation, despite it occurring with an entirely different person several dozen miles away.
Intuition is easy when people around you think exactly the same way about everything
You found the IRL equivalent of Skyrim “radiant A.I.” NPCs
There’s sure to be a mod to fix this?
UESP - Unofficial Earth Sim Patch
That’s a wiki: Unofficial Elder Scrolls Pages
I meant in Skyrim, not IRL. Although i can relate.
Oh yeah, there’s definitely mods to fix everything in Skyrim. I thought you were continuing the bit 😂
Fled America when Biden was still president. Urged all my friends to do the same. If told-ya-so’s were money I’d have fixed income in perpetuity.
Unfortunately, moving is expensive and citizenship elsewhere is expensive and complicated.
I’ll get the fuck out eventually. Hopefully.
A lot of people don’t have good options, I hate how much governments treat people like property and immigrants like invaders. I’m a dual citizen but getting family visas for everyone else has been financially ruinous. Hope they can get citizenship soon.
When trump won in 2016 I told all my trans friends to buy guns and bought them books about starting mutual aid/defense networks, explaining to them the democratic party soon would abandon them.
They were all still pretty liberal and were still very antigun. A lot of them thought I was losing it at the time. Since then I’ve taken most of them to the gun range to teach them how to shoot.
You’re a good friend. Hope the mutual aid is going well, it’s a less exciting day than the gun range maybe - but that’s going to be a big deal sooner or later.
Yeah, unfortunately we live in one of the most conservative states in the US, so if something were to happen to them calling the police wouldn’t exactly be a great option. If all the bigots are strapped up there really isn’t any other option than to arm yourself to protect your community.
You don’t have to defend it to me. Back in the states I practiced with my own piece and even did my own handloads sometimes.
A life time of obsessive pattern recognition done to try to fit in will do that.
My parents were pro-trump, and pro to other 2 Italian polticians, i always told them that their gover is goin to be shit…a few years later and I was right in all 3 cases
