This week, the 60-day period of negotiations — dedicated to implementing the memorandum of understanding signed by Tehran and Washington on June 17 — came to an end without yielding any results. After resuming bombing on July 7, the United States once again failed in its attempt to use military force to scrap the terms of an agreement that marked a strategic defeat for it and Israel. While Trump maintains his blockade to strangle Iran, imperialism finds itself in an almost total military deadlock.
Back to Square One
From a military standpoint, the various campaigns waged by the United States have all ended in strategic failure.
From February 28 to April 7, Israel and the United States carried out a massive aerial bombing campaign without achieving any of the objectives outlined in Trump’s agenda: regime change has failed, Iran retains its ballistic and nuclear programs, and the so-called Axis of Resistance remains resilient. The global impact of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted Trump to declare a ceasefire.
While Iran’s control of the strait dealt a severe blow to the United States’ hegemonic claim to ensure the security of global trade, the United States launched a low-intensity war by conducting limited airstrikes and imposing a coercive blockade on April 12, after negotiations failed in Islamabad, Pakistan. Reopening the strait then took precedence over all other objectives.
But this strategy failed yet again, forcing Trump to sign a capitulation agreement that ratified the complete lifting of sanctions imposed since 1979, Iran’s right to sell its oil on the world market, Iranian-Omani control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a $600 billion package for the country’s reconstruction.
While Iran’s victory represents a crushing defeat for the United States, Trump attempted to circumvent Iranian control of the strait before relaunching a high-intensity air campaign on July 7 and reinstating sanctions. The return to the initial strategy once again ended in failure: Trump ended the bombing campaign after 13 days of nighttime strikes and reverted to the blockade strategy on July 14.
Since then, the blockade of Iran has remained in place. But this strategy will unlikely change the balance of power. Its goal is to shut down Iran’s oil sector by blocking exports and saturating the country’s storage capacity. During the first blockade, Scott Bessent, the U.S. secretary of energy and architect of the plundering of Venezuela, boasted that it would take only a few days to saturate Iran’s storage capacity. But Iran had apparently anticipated this situation, according to energy strategist Umud Shokri:
Tehran relies in particular on floating storage on oil tankers. The country has already brought old or partially decommissioned storage tanks back into service. It is also making use of makeshift facilities in hubs such as Ahvaz and Assalouyeh and is attempting, on a limited basis, to export by rail to China.
According to a study by Kpler, Iran had an expanded storage capacity of about 90 million to 95 million barrels during the first blockade. Almost a month after the blockade began, Iranian oil inventory had risen to 49 million barrels, leaving roughly 41 million barrels of storage capacity still available, based on the 90-million-barrel estimate — far from reaching capacity. Thanks to the memorandum of understanding, Iran likely offloaded part of its stockpiles, thereby expanding its room for maneuver.
On the other hand, U.S. imperialism does not seem to understand the mechanics of its own sanctions. Shipments of Iranian crude typically take two months to reach China, while payment for the shipments takes an additional two months. In other words, Iran receives revenue from oil sales about four months after the shipments depart, significantly limiting the effects of the blockade, which will not be felt for several months.
At the same time, Trump continues to underestimate the determination of the Iranian regime. On August 11, Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Reza explained that Iran had realized that the U.S. military is weaker than it appears. This shift in strategy is also reflected in Mohsen Rezaei’s appointment as chair of the National Security Council. This veteran of the Iran-Iraq War made a name for himself in 1988 by opposing an end to the war and advocating a five-year plan aimed at reversing the military situation — a plan that reportedly discouraged Khomeini from continuing the war. Now in a key position within the Iranian hierarchy, Rezaei appears to be seeking concessions greater than those outlined in the memorandum of understanding by adopting a more aggressive approach.
If Trump is delusional and now wants to turn the Strait of Hormuz into “U.S. territory,” his military options are extremely limited: a ground operation, already discussed during the first phase of the war, seems suicidal, while significant constraints — political, social, and economic — limit the United States’ ability to conduct high-intensity air campaigns or maintain its blockade of Iran.
A Gordian Knot
On the one hand, the “morale” of the U.S. military is crumbling after a reported suicide attempt on the USS Abraham Lincoln after 260 days of deployment. The exhaustion of troops compounds the problem of ammunition stocks, as noted by Foreign Policy:
The United States has reportedly used 1,500 Patriot missile interceptors during the war and has around 1,700 remaining. Patriot interceptors cost roughly $4 million and take more than two years to build. Reports also suggest that the U.S. military has also burned through close to 80 percent of its THAAD interceptors; used “virtually all” of its long-range precision missiles; and lost roughly a quarter of its MQ-9 Reaper drones (which, at $30 million to $50 million apiece, aren’t exactly cheap).
But these technical limitations give rise to political contradictions, since these munitions play an essential role in the credibility of U.S. deterrence in Asia as part of the strategy to contain China. As Washington redirects these stockpiles to the Middle East, maintaining the blockade is forcing the United States to redeploy its naval assets as well: the USS George Washington, based in Japan, has been deployed to replace the USS Lincoln, weakening imperialism’s naval-military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
At the same time, the United States must contend with the consequences of a potentially worsening energy crisis. Since July 20, Iran has mobilized the Houthi rebels in Yemen and begun to tighten its grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, threatening to close a chokepoint as strategic as the Strait of Hormuz. For now, the Houthi blockade primarily affects Saudi oil tankers, but the dynamics at Hormuz could repeat themselves, given that a rise in marine insurance premiums is proving more effective than mines at preventing ships from passing through.
While Riyadh has attempted to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by routing its oil to the port of Yambou via the East-West pipeline, the Houthis have targeted several tankers. This situation is fueling fears in the financial markets. The price of Brent crude suddenly rose to $100 a barrel on July 23, and the shock quickly spread quickly to the bond markets. The situation could worsen, especially since the impact of the Hormuz crisis had been offset by several strong countertendencies, as noted by Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan in Foreign Affairs:
<blockquote>The Hormuz crisis has so far led to only modest oil price spikes thanks to an unusual combination of favorable market conditions and years of investment in energy security measures. Before the war began, oil markets were oversupplied, inventories were relatively high, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had built pipelines around the strait, and governments and companies had amassed emergency and commercial stocks. In addition, China helped stabilize the global oil balance by reducing its imports, drawing on its immense capacity to curb how much oil it buys for stocks, holds in inventory, refines for export, and consumes domestically.</blockquote>
As emergency reserves have been partially depleted and alternative supply routes are now being targeted, the energy crisis could worsen and result in a further erosion of U.S. hegemony — particularly in Asia, where Washington’s allies are especially dependent on energy flows from the Middle East. It also poses a direct threat to Trump on the domestic front ahead of the midterms, at a time when his approval rating is at an all-time low of 33 percent.
Under these circumstances, Trump faces a veritable Gordian knot. On the one hand, continuing the war comes at a very high cost to U.S. imperialism, whose ability to control and protect global trade flows — “rheocratic” power, according to historian Xavier Carpentier-Tanguy — has been permanently undermined, even as it seeks to contain China’s rise in Asia.
But U.S. imperialism fears that withdrawing from the conflict and yielding to Iranian demands would further weaken its hegemony. Thus, both the continuation and the cessation of the war directly threaten U.S. domination, while in this transitional military situation — where negotiations have stalled and the U.S. blockade persists — the geostrategic balance in the region continues to deteriorate.
The Expansion of the Imperialist War and the Tripolarization of the Middle East
The events of late July illustrate the extremely dangerous dynamic of the imperialist war’s escalation and spread.
On the one hand, Ukraine’s attack on an Iranian ship highlights the risks of regional conflicts becoming interconnected — or even merging and spiraling out of control — amid a turbulent international situation. On the other hand, at the regional level, the conflict continues to spread. After a coordinated attack on Saudi refineries — likely carried out by the Houthis and pro-Iranian militias — Saudi Arabia directly participated, alongside Washington, in strikes against Iraq on July 29. In response, Iran struck Jordan — an increasingly frequent target of its attacks against countries allied with U.S. imperialism.
Saudi Arabia’s direct military involvement raises fears that it may resume its bloody war on Yemen, since the Houthis now directly threaten the kingdom’s export capabilities. As a result, Saudi Arabia is caught in a vise between Hodeidah and Tehran. Saudi ground operations in Yemen may be in the works, now that the Saudis have reinforced their troops along the border.
While Iraq is under constant attack by the United States, which is attempting to weaken Iranian militias, the conflict has already spread far beyond the Gulf region alone: in Egypt, a drone struck a U.S. tanker in the port of Damietta on July 29. At the same time, Israel continues to ravage southern Lebanon, after a surrender agreement was signed by President Joseph Aoun’s pro-imperialist government and negotiations in Rome resulted in deadlock in early August.
As for Gaza, Israeli strikes have resumed with full force since early August, raising fears of a resumption of the high-intensity genocidal war, even as Netanyahu officially rejected the Trump plan while Hamas began to yield on key points.
Parallel to this trend toward the conflict’s expansion, the regional balance of power is growing toward tripolarization with the emergence of a third pole, alongside the “Abrahamic coalition” led by Israel and the UAE, and the Iranian pole. Centered around Turkey, Pakistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, this new grouping is attempting to defend its interests and adopt a balanced stance toward Iran amid the crisis of credibility plaguing U.S. imperialism and Israel’s perpetual wars.
In a further sign of the emergence of this “Sunni” axis, the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed August 7 by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, expands on the mutual defense agreement signed between the latter two countries in 2025. The agreement states that an attack on any one of the signatories constitutes an attack against all members of this coalition, which also provides for various forms of military cooperation. This new agreement increases the short-term risk that the conflict will spread, since Saudi Arabia is now the target of Iranian and Houthi attacks.
Turkey’s entry into this alliance represents a significant step forward for Ankara, which is attempting to establish itself as the main hub for the export of Gulf energy products to Europe — an ambition shared by Israel, thereby intensifying tensions between the two countries. The recent nuclear agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and the United States has also drawn opposition from Israel, which fears a new source of challenge to its nuclear monopoly. This fragmentation of the region and the emergence of more autonomous powers reflect the erosion of the United States’ ability to dictate terms in the Middle East while paving the way for an intensification of regional rivalries.
Down with Imperialist War!
As imperialism ravages the region, there is an urgent need to denounce imperialist war by building a broad solidarity movement that firmly advocates for the military defeat of the United States and Israel while maintaining complete political independence from the Iranian regime — which neither can nor will permanently expel imperialism from the region and instead prefers to renegotiate its relations with the United States.
Tehran’s strategy, centered on a technical ballistic war and based on the repression of the masses, deprives the Iranian nation of its most revolutionary forces. Even though Iran is in a position of military strength, the Iranian regime does not use the levers of coercion at its disposal to serve the working classes of the region, going so far as to exclude Gaza from the memorandum of understanding.
As for the so-called Axis of Resistance, it has served exclusively to defend the interests of the Iranian regime while helping repress the class struggle in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, thereby limiting the masses’ ability to resist repeated imperialist aggressions. More than ever, the defense of Iran and all peoples oppressed by imperialism in the Middle East depends on the defeat of the United States in the ongoing war, which would open up opportunities for struggle for workers around the world. But this victory can be lasting and complete only if it comes from the hands of the workers, the youth, and the working classes throughout the region.
Originally published in French on August 18 in Révolution Permanente.
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