My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
As many predicted quite early on in this conflict, the US simply does not have the stockpiles nor production lines to maintain the firing rates we saw in March and April. There’s at least five strictly military problems:
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Not enough interceptors to shoot down Iranian missiles, and many missiles get through regardless. This includes a dearth of interceptors in the Zionist entity proper.
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Not enough stand-off munitions to cause a real breakdown of Iran’s military and society. There’s enough left in the submarines and in whatever stockpiles they have mustered to give one last very serious barrage before they’re just completely out (unless they start taking all their missiles out of the Pacific and Europe), but even if this is done, this shock and awe failed the first time around, and the missile cities have proven impregnable to Western military technology.
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Not enough penetration of Iranian airspace to allow a transition from stand-off bombs to their near-endless supply of glide/gravity bombs. On the edges of Iranian territory it can be possible, but doing so any further inside causes exponential risk to the bombers. Notably, Reaper drones can carry JDAMs, hence why they continue to be used so much despite how often they’re getting shot down.
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Not enough naval power to reopen Hormuz. Otherwise, the US could hypothetically wait out Iran and exert economic and covert pressure to encourage political collapse; with Hormuz in Iran’s hands, the US’s delaying tactics favor Iran instead.
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Not enough functioning and safe bases from which to launch counterattacks. Due to debasification (a word that has now spread far and wide after Amerikanet’s coining, lol), the US has been pushed back away from the Gulf. This dangerously overpopulates rear bases with planes and makes it so sortie rates are reduced due to how much distance you have to travel and how many refuelers you need per bomber.
No angry proclamations, media offensives, or tacky AI image posts can change this reality, and boy is Trump putting out a lot of that last one. This is why, after the two weeks of attacks we just saw, we see the US very reticent to try and escalate further, and Trump’s threat over last weekend to really start bombing Iran did not occur. This is being reflected in the US media, with several worried articles talking about how there just aren’t enough missiles to keep the conflict going much longer. One of the only options left is to use ground/special forces to do… something, though pretty much no matter what target he selects, it’s hard to imagine it breaking Iran, or doing much to end the conflict, or even being a successful operation past the point where you’ve landed troops somewhere. We saw the “pilot rescue” (uranium heist) operation fail and aborted before the forces could even step foot off the runway they landed on.
It is into this environment that Ansarallah has suddenly declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia - an architect of the blockade of Yemen and one of the major causes of the country’s internal divisions between Ansarallah and comprador groups - and is turning their ships around at the entrance to the Red Sea, thereby cutting off a good chunk of the Saudi’s remaining oil exports. Ansarallah has proven they were not interested in some cautious, gradual climb up the escalation ladder; when the Saudis hit a couple Yemeni port facilities, they went ahead and hit Jazan and Yanbu so hard that the fires were still raging a day or two after the initial strikes. The US is apparently asking for the MoU back, and this time with Ansarallah also placated, but it appears Iran is much less interested in the MoU now after it was thoroughly violated by the US the first time - and if it does return to it, it might have much more hardline demands.
Last week’s thread is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-population/
About 52 million people lived in Ukraine in 1991. Back in May, Denys Uliutin, Ukraine’s Minister of Social Policy, said the country now only has about 22 to 25 million residents.
Things are going great! Ukraine will obviously win!
Do the libs and soft left hate Claudia Sheinbaum? I just got blindsided by an avalanche of Claudia hate on TikTok while browsing a bunch of “left” communities
Like straight up MAGA talking points; “She’s a cartel asset”, “She’s corrupt”, “she’s authoritarian” and very little pushback
WTF happened?
Another “they begged me not to attack” TACO. Won’t be so impactful during the weekend tho. Iran should launch some strikes against Jordan tomorrow.
Regarding the recent migrant wave sent by Morocco to Spain :
Last month I wrote a comment pointing out the US participation in the opening up of a corruption case against the former PSOE leader and ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, and explained how this points to election interference against the socialdemocrats in Spain by NATO due to Spain’s recent positively surprising attitudes in terms of international politics.
Since then, and despite FIFA’s best efforts in the final, Spain won the world football cup, which has been a huge morale boost for the country and likely ameliorated tensions in national politics, relevant when we have elections next year. Possibly for this reason, the NATO block has decided an emergency measure against Pedro Sánchez’s popularity: firing a migrant wave against Spain’s borders.
I will start by condemning the deplorable actions of all border guards on both countries, bunch of murderous pigs and bloodthirsty reactionaries. Shame on the EU for paying up Morocco to brutalize migrants as a way of preventing them from reaching Spain, and shame on Morocco for carrying out this role. My heart goes to the many migrants murdered both in this wave and all migrants routinely being abused and murdered by the state apparatus of said countries.
However it’s also important to understand that, as I discussed over a month ago already, the NATO block won’t simply close their arms and wait, they need to make it clear that the lukewarmest social-democracy isn’t sufficient, it needs full support to all ongoing genocidal actions of the empire, which the right wing in the PP and Vox are more than happy to oblige to.
When you discuss this topic with libs, make them see the obvious and blatant election interference in Spain by the US and Israel (surprise! not Le Ebil Ruzzians or eco-authoritarian China). NATO stands against democracy, will attempt to eliminate any even minuscully progressive movement through whatever means it wants. Be very explicit of the mchanisms through which this is obvious election interference, and ask whether similar but much harsher tactics are deployed in Venezuela or Cuba. Frame this as what it Is: blatant election interference
Wednesday:
Fed Reserve votes to keep interest rate unchanged despite obvious inflation increase of last few months
Thursday:
(1)Japan sold US treasuries so BOJ could buy Yen in an attempt to stopgap Yen freefall
(2)CBS news warns that a No Holds Barred joint US and Israel attack on Iran is imminent
Friday:
(1)Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent instructed US Banks to do a forex trade selling Euros and buying Yen also to help bolster Yen value
(2)Trump confirms US attack on Iran is imminent.
There seems to be some fear that this will cause panic in the markets next week and the Trump trade might start to unwind. Maybe the threats against Iran are a ruse designed to make Iran lay low for a few days to prop markets up and not counter USA and Japan’s efforts to bolster Yen value.
U.S. general warns Pentagon he lacks sufficient forces to protect Israel - WaPo
A shortage of Navy destroyers, used to defend against Iranian ballistic missile attacks, will force the head of U.S. European Command to prioritize the U.S. homeland instead, officials said.
Full text
The top U.S. general in Europe privately warned the Pentagon this week that he lacks sufficient naval forces to continue protecting Israel from incoming ballistic missiles, officials said, illustrating how the ongoing Iran war has imposed constraints on the military.
Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of U.S. European Command, sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel, said the officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the correspondence.
A U.S. defense official said Grynkewich’s notification appears consistent with past outreach to the Pentagon from the military’s top generals when they see certain risks that require Washington’s consideration. This can occur, the official said, as commanders compete for finite resources and weapons.
The Pentagon declined to comment. U.S. European Command did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington could not be reached for comment.
The general’s warning comes at a tenuous moment in the five-month conflict, as near-daily attacks have resumed following the collapse of peace talks between Washington and Tehran and the operation’s intensity has drained U.S. supplies of key defensive weapons.
The Navy has been particularly taxed, as the Trump administration has directed a blockade of Iranian ports in response to Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff has stymied the movement of Middle Eastern oil and other commodities through the narrow waterway, upending the global economy.
U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as a part of Israel’s defense for many years. The vessels, equipped with powerful radar and armed with an array of missiles, have downed missiles aimed at Israel not only by Iran, but by Houthi militants in Yemen that are equipped by Tehran.
European Command is central to this mission, as it coordinates military operations in the Mediterranean. At the same time, its forces must remain ready for any Russian incursion into territory protected by the NATO military alliance. Russia also poses a ballistic missile threat to the United States, with missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
The Navy has five destroyers that deploy from a U.S. port in Rota, Spain, with a sixth expected to arrive there later this year, Pentagon officials have said. But maintenance issues have piled up due to the Iran war’s tempo, complicating matters for Grynkewich, officials said. The Washington Post withheld specific details about the ships’ availability at the request of military officials, who cited security concerns.
As The Post reported in May, Pentagon assessments conducted earlier in the war showed that U.S. forces have shouldered the brunt of defending Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles. The assessments found that American weapons, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and naval interceptors launched from the eastern Mediterranean, were used far more frequently than Israeli air defense weapons.
Two destroyers, the USS Paul Ignatius and the USS Roosevelt, were in the Mediterranean Sea on Friday, a U.S. official said. Three destroyers were in Rota: the USS Arleigh Burke, the USS Bulkeley and the USS Oscar Austin.
Closer to Iran, an armada of additional vessels was in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers, the USS George H.W. Bush and USS Abraham Lincoln, and at least 15 other warships, this official said. Eleven are destroyers.
The fleet has been central to the Trump administration’s blockade of Iranian ports. It also has been involved in an effort called “Project Freedom,” in which the U.S. military has helped protect vessels in the contested Strait of Hormuz.
Another destroyer, the USS Gonzalez, is in the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthis have attempted to enforce their own blockade of commercial shipping in a bid to further the economic pressure facing the U.S. and its allies in the region. Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. partner, has sought to thwart the Houthis, a longtime adversary, by developing a military coalition to ensure freedom of navigation.
The Iran war is increasingly unpopular among the U.S. public, and members of Congress — from both political parties — have grown frustrated with the administration as top officials struggle to articulate a plan for ending the conflict on terms deemed favorable to the United States. There is a deepening worry among many Republicans, particularly, that the war’s impact on the price of gas, food and other goods will cost the party in November’s midterm elections.
Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, said the warning issued by Grynkewich highlights the scope of the Pentagon’s challenges.
“Being on a wartime footing is going to take a toll in terms of readiness and munitions inventory levels,” he said. “Now the question is: What’s the strategy here?”
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A lot of warnings, panic and evacuation orders. The US is even saying that US citizens in Egypt should be prepared to evacuate. But, not much is happening on the ground, except the US evacuating the bases close to Iran they’ve already started evacuating a week ago.
[edit] A couple more people are saying their sources in the US & Israeli government are telling them that an attack today is very likely. Meanwhile, Trump is just posting memes about himself on Truth Social.
[edit2] It seems like the US reached out to Iran yesterday and today through a bunch of intermediaries, this makes it more likely that Trump was just issuing threats that were supposed to get Iran to sign some sort of deal again. I’m now leaning towards a TACO.
[edit3] What is this, he again posted the insane alien AI photo?
NYT: Visuals Suggest U.S. Dropped 2,000-Pound Bomb on Home in Iran, Killing 3 (Direct NYT link; archive sites are down right now, sorry)
The United States struck a family home on Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight on Thursday with a large-scale bomb, according to an analysis of videos, photos and satellite imagery by weapons experts and The New York Times. Iranian officials said the strike had killed a husband and wife and their 2-year-old son. The couple’s two other children were pulled from the rubble alive, they said.
The size of the crater and munition fragments appear to show the weapon used was a 2,000-pound bomb called a Mark-84, one of the largest conventional bombs used by the U.S. military. The location and time of the strikes are consistent with where and when the United States was operating. The evidence raises questions about what the United States was targeting and why such a large munition was used.
The strike hit a densely populated neighborhood on the island, which sits in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, and appears to have been part of a flurry of attacks the United States said it had launched to retaliate against earlier strikes by Iran on a base used by American forces in Jordan.
The Times found no indication of a military site near the family’s home or any reports of military casualties from the strike, which the Iranian authorities typically announce.
Trump has once again stated that he expects the United States to gain control of Greenland before the end of his presidential term.
In an interview with Real America’s Voice, the interviewer reminded Trump of his “prediction” that by the time his term ends, Greenland would be “under our operational control.”
“Yes, you will be right to bet on that. Greenland is very important – from our point of view, not theirs [Denmark’s],” the U.S. President replied.
Previously, Trump has repeatedly stated that Washington should gain control of Greenland, citing national security concerns and U.S. strategic interests in the Arctic. Denmark and the authorities of Greenland itself reject the possibility of the island being transferred to U.S. control.
- Slava Intel
Iran’s Armed Forces enter the highest state of readiness, changing to wartime protocols. Iran struck an oil tanker 11 nautical miles off the coast of Oman, per UKMTO.
- Middle East Spectator
The president downplayed the impact of actions by US President Donald Trump and statements by Argentine President Javier Milei on the 2026 elections: “Let whoever wants to come. I’m not afraid. I don’t want outside help.”
“As long as I live, the far right will not govern this country again. And I’ll say more, I’ll say that whoever wants to help them can come. If Trump wants to come, let him come. If Milei wants to come, let him come. Whoever wants to come, come. I don’t want outside help. The only help I want is the help of the Brazilian people so that we can maintain democracy in this country,” he stated.
Article
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) stated this Friday (31) that the extreme right will not govern Brazil again while he is alive and downplayed the actions of the President of the United States, Donald Trump , and the Argentine President, Javier Milei , to support opposition candidates in the race for the Presidency of the Republic. The president’s speech was made during the PT’s state party convention in Ceará, which confirmed Elmano de Freitas as the candidate for governor of the state .
“As long as I live, the far right will not govern this country again. And I’ll say more, I’ll say that whoever wants to help them can come. If Trump wants to come, let him come. If Milei wants to come, let him come. Whoever wants to come, come. I don’t want outside help. I’m not afraid of them. The only help I want is the help of the Brazilian people so that we can maintain democracy in this country,” he stated.
At the event, held in Fortaleza on Friday night (31), Lula also showed support for the candidacies of Cid Gomes (PSB) as senator and Gabriella Aguiar (PSD) as vice-governor. Also on Friday (31), the president visited the University Hospital of Ceará , in Fortaleza.
During his speech, the Workers’ Party member also mentioned that he will need candidates for the Senate in the 2026 elections because the House “is half rotten and we need to get the Senate to do things right.”
The diplomatic crisis between Brazil and Argentina began after Milei participated in the PL party convention, which launched Flávio Bolsonaro as a presidential candidate. During his speech, Milei called President Lula a “thief ,” Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes “bald trash,” and criticized the Brazilian government and economy.
The Brazilian government responded by summoning the Argentine ambassador in Brasília to provide clarifications . It also recalled the Brazilian ambassador in Buenos Aires for consultations, a measure adopted during times of tension between countries.
Since then, officials from both governments have exchanged further statements. Milei again criticized Lula on social media. In Brazil, government officials responded to the Argentine president’s remarks, while Lula avoided escalating the confrontation when commenting on the episode.
An explosion has been heard near Eslamabad-e-Gharb, Iran. Unexploded ordnance from the Iran-Iraq war, according to Tasnim
- Middle East Spectator
spirit wants some action tooA projectile hit a vessel 11 nautical miles northeast of Lima, Oman early today
https://xcancel.com/bonzerbarry/status/2083229124756115961
Trump: Iran is doing very poorly, just in case you read incorrect stories, they’re doing very very poorly-they’re having a hard time. Their missiles have been largely-they have some left, they have some, but they have far fewer than they had four or five months ago. Their manufacturing capacity is… almost gone. The drone capacity is almost gone, they have very few. But they have some. We’re in there 5 months, I know people like to say-because we’re doing a much bigger job, a much more important job than we originally anticipated. We’re in for 5 months and we have obliterated their military capacity. Again they’ve got some left, but soon they won’t have some left.
Reporter: You said that they do have some capabilities left, should Americans be prepared for these back and forth attacks until Iran is simply unable to strike back?
Trump: They’ll get weaker, they’ll get weaker, they’ll get stronger maybe…now, but they’ll get weaker, and then they peter out-uhhhhh yeah sure, I think so.
https://xcancel.com/real*removed*no/status/2083230402018226383
Special Uhhhhhh They’ll Peter Out I Think Operation. The SUTPOITO
Operation They’ll Get Stronger Maybe
