My summary of the situation as I understand it is in spoiler tags below.
summary
After many long weeks, Iran and the US have agreed that they’re going to begin negotiations on certain topics in a process lasting at least 60 days. Due to America’s perfidy during previous negotiations, trust has broken down so far that Iran demanded $12 billion of their frozen funds and several other promises, such as the end to the naval blockade, to even return to the table, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Iran also demanded that negotiations take place in two stages, and that nuclear issues will only be discussed in the second stage, which will be several weeks from now if everything goes as planned.
The terms of the MoU have themselves been a big source of confusion and suspicion, for me and many other pro-Iranian spectators. Getting the wording exactly correct is important, because the US really is like the devil - leave room for any possible interpretation in the contract that favors them more, and they’ll insist that this was the only interpretation up for discussion. Additionally, the US might be historically bad at winning wars, but they’re very, very good at winning peaces: they set up the post-WW2 order to best suit them by playing the European powers off each other; the DPRK might have survived the Korean War politically intact but existed for nearly the next hundred years as a sanctioned pariah; Vietnam was soon forced to economically engage with the country that had dropped triple of all the bomb tonnage of WW2 on them; and so on. It is no exaggeration when I say that the negotiation phase will be the most dangerous part of this war and it could lead to the most death and destruction without a single missile impacting Iran.
However, there’s one little genocidal colony in the region that could stop this whole process from even beginning, as the US appears to have promised Iran that the Zionists will stop the war against Lebanon (and perhaps Gaza too? I’m a little unclear) and even withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, including all bases set up since this broader conflict began. Apparently, the US promised this in return for Iran not striking the Zionists in return for their most recent strike on Beirut on June 14th. Now, the issue with this whole situation is that the US greenlit the Zionist strike on Beirut, and they knew that Iran would respond to it because they did in response to an earlier strike. If the US made such major concessions to Iran in return for this response strike not occurring, then why authorize the Beirut strike at all? Why make their position worse? Right now, I can think of two reasons. First is that they attempted to create one final embarrassment for Iran, under the assumption that Iran was so desperate for a deal that they wouldn’t risk responding. Second is that this is all one big ruse or misdirection; the US does not intend to follow through with the MoU and subsequent negotiations anyway, and so the terms they’re “agreeing” to don’t really matter.
With the MoU signing apparently set for June 19th, we’ll know for sure soon.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
“I understand how the Iranians win in this MOU, but I sure don’t see how this helps one single American family,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren told reporters on Capitol Hill.
CNN: B-52 bomber crashes shortly after takeoff at California’s Edwards Air Force Base, military says
It is not immediately clear if there are any injuries. CNN has reached out to the base for more information.UPDATE: Eight crewmembers are believed to be dead in a B-52 bomber crash shortly after takeoff from a base northeast of Los Angeles Monday morning, Edwards Air Force Base said.
The crash left a towering black plume at Edwards Air Force Base, located in California’s Mojave Desert, northeast of Los Angeles. The runway at the base was left with a large blackened scar and smoke, but it was difficult to make out any distinct parts of the wreckage, video from CNN affiliate KCAL shows.
Before Monday’s crash, the most recent fatal accident involving the aircraft was in 2008, when six Air Force personnel were killed after their B-52 crashed into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Guam while preparing for a parade flyover.
It is not immediately clear if there are any injuries
it was difficult to make out any distinct parts of the wreckage
ok
even if everyone on board died (
) this crash still definitely saved lives because it’s one less airframe available for the machineMay many such incidents follow.
Maybe their toilet got clogged
Nothing left of it
TRUMP OFFICIALS REPORTEDLY OPEN BACKCHANNEL CONTACTS WITH ISRAELI OPPOSITION FIGURES
U.S. SAID TO BE ENGAGING ISRAELI OPPOSITION AMID CONCERNS OVER NETANYAHU COALITION
TRUMP ADMIN REPORTEDLY BUILDS TIES WITH POST-NETANYAHU CONTENDERS
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2068143107858919749
it would be funny if this war just ends with israeli regime change and Iranian normalization
Officially announced the Strait of Hormoz is CLOSED (official Hezbollah telegram account)
#Islamic_Republic
Central Headquarters “Khatam Al-Anbiya”:
{And if they break their oaths after their covenant and revile your religion, then fight the leaders of disbelief. Indeed, they have no faithfulness to their oaths, that they may desist.} — (Holy Qur’an – Surat At-Tawbah [9:12])
In light of the United States’ clear breach of its commitments and its failure to implement the first provision of the agreement to end the war, and in response to the ongoing and continuous violations of the ceasefire by the Zionist entity in southern Lebanon, accompanied by the brutal killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of the inhabitants of this oppressed region, as well as the continued presence of occupying Zionist forces on the territory of southern Lebanon, it is hereby announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to maritime traffic.
It is noted that this measure constitutes the first phase of the response to the enemy’s breach of its commitments. Should the aggressions continue, further steps will be planned and undertaken to compel the enemy to fulfill its obligations.
#Military_Media
BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz has been officially closed
An Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, will travel to Geneva tonight to meet with U.S. officials According to the Foreign Ministry, Araqchi will ‘demand clarifications’ and follow up on the implementation of the U.S. commitments in the MoU.
This statement by the Foreign Ministry came before the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was announced. It’s possible Araqchi’s trip is cancelled.
- Middle East Spectator
—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧 BREAKING: ‘We will remain in the occupied areas in Lebanon. We will maintain the security zone.’ – Netanyahu
@Middle_East_Spectator
that didnt last long
This war will never end unless the US forces Israel to stop it (Or Iran destroys Israel enough for the Palestinians to free the entire country), and I doubt the Israelis will ever accept that.
It will end when the contradictions driving the war are changed, and right now Israel + US has neither the means nor the will to resolve them, and Iran may have the means but it does not have the will to escalate further.
This war will end in 2040
In 2028 Israel will have reached its expiration date.
2028 sounds like a scarily accurate number considering the knock on effects of the Hormuz blockade.
Whats for sure is that gas in seppoland will never go below $4 ever again.
History will call this the Groundhog Day War
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:
‘From our perspective, there are two sides in this MoU. On one side there is the United States and Israel, and on the other side there is Iran and Hezbollah.
An end to the war in Lebanon is an inseperable part of the complete end of the war in the region. And a complete end to the war includes a withdrawal of all the forces from occupied areas. Without the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the lands it occupied during this war, it won’t be considered a complete end to the war.
Any military attack by Israel against Lebanon from now on, or the continuation of Israeli occupation inside Lebanon, will definitely be considered a violation of the MoU.’
- Middle East Spectator
Zionist infighting has broken out:
“Israeli citizens are waking up to an agreement between the United States and Iran made over Israel’s head,” Yair Golan, head of Israel’s Democrats Party, said on the social media platform X.
“This is the culmination of long years of failure,” he added, slamming Netanyahu for selling Israeli settlers “a false image of security.”
“Netanyahu is the man who, for years, sold the public a false image of ‘Mr. Security,’ and in reality became the father of Israel’s greatest strategic failure in its history,” he said.
President Trump said the Iran agreement helped avert a global energy crisis:
“We run out of reserves in about four weeks.”
We would really run out, and there’ll be a time when you wouldn’t be able to get it.”
Trump said that without a deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the world was headed toward an “economic catastrophe” and severe oil shortages.
Trump says Iran showed no limits to his power
When questioned on whether the Memorandum of Understanding amounted to the “unconditional surrender” he had initially wanted from Tehran, Trump doubled down saying that it “really probably is unconditional surrender”.
Oh it was an unconditional surrender alright
https://xcancel.com/buckadeath/status/2066920202387017825
Israeli outlet Israel Hayom reports, in a claim not yet echoed by other major outlets, that President Trump is weighing the dismissal of several senior administration figures who opposed the Iran deal, including Defense Secretary Hegseth and CIA Director Ratcliffe. “The argument has been settled. Those who opposed it may pay a personal price,” a senior U.S. official was quoted as saying about the behind-the-scenes turmoil. According to the report, Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears to be safe for now.
Khamenei watching his son regime change the US
Warning: Active Psyop.
The Esptein-backed Farsi language news channels have been telling the public of a plan by Ghalibaf and Trump and Netanyahu to overturn Khamenei. See my post earlier in the megathread.
Now we’re getting people telling the Iranian state media about a betrayal by the negotiators before getting cut off (see posts below in the megathread). With the Director of IRIB resigning because of these discussions (also below).
We have people talking on supposedly on behalf of Khamenei, who we should understand are not Khamenei.
We discuss here the potential for the MOU to create a rift in the Esptein axis, but they are trying to do the same thing with Iran-Lebanon and internal Iranian politics.
Today, with armed forces on the streets of Tehran - awaiting a potential security incident - it’s clear the Epstein Axis has a plan and is setting the groundwork for how the public should interpret the ensuing events.
- Please be mindful of the rumours you spread.
- Please think carefully about any action before acting.
- Please remind everyone of their responsibilities for mature and considerate actions.
- Please understand the incentives and the plans for creating division and erratic action for undermining society.
US intelligence agencies have de facto admitted that Iran won the war:
US intelligence agencies assess that from now on Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz at will, acquiring a powerful instrument of exerting pressure on the global economy, CNN said, citing sources.
“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait - a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” CNN cited a source familiar with the US intelligence assessments. “The war fundamentally altered Tehran’s thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.”
