Welcome again to everybody. Make yourself at home. In the time-honoured tradition of our group, here is the weekly discussion thread.
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I’m really worried about Cuba. I had a similar feeling of dread right before Venezuela was defeated, and Iran was attacked. But unlike the previous two, Cuba is the most vulnerable and susceptible to collapse under US pressure right now.
Cuba has survived a kind of economic siege and attempts to coup them for decades now. It’s always possible they could fall, but that’s true of the US capitalist class too. We live in uncertain times and the empire is trying to reassert itself in decline but the material realities don’t hold up. I think the US and israel are in somewhat mirrored positions right now, in that way. Israel is obviously more vulnerable as a whole, but both have more fronts open than they can handle, have global reputations in freefall, and are too stuck in belligerence to assert stability.
Also, I would not characterize the Bolivarian Revolution as defeated, from the information I’ve seen. They appear to be working through a difficult strategic retreat and some internal struggle to work through as a result, but the struggle for liberation is a war, not a single battle.
Your worry is valid, but I encourage you to zoom out and consider the larger picture.
Cuba is extremely vulnerable. The U.S. can just attack it unceasingly with less time needed for positioning units. They won’t have as much time to prepare in between strikes.
Venezuela and Iran can hold out but I don’t think Cuba can do the same.
Yeah, the threat of USSR retaliation kept the US in check for many years with countries like Cuba. Russia is stretched to the limits of their capabilities, China has yet to show any hardline commitment towards interventionism, and everyone else is either willingly allied with the US or too weak to do anything. There is no one to kept the US in check for going rogue especially with countries in their backyard. Plus, air power is much more destructive and capable now then in the past if you lack the modern air defenses to match or can inflict equal damage back with your own modern offensive capabilities like Iran did, guerilla warfare with only rpg-7s and AK47s won’t get you as far in 2026 as it did in the 1970s.