hahaha jokes on you I have no money for retirement anyway
I begrudgingly have to accept that Elon is some type of genius. He has convinced the entire stock market to be his bagholder on his quest to become a trillionaire.
From the bogleheads (emphasis mine):
“… VTI (and most index funds for that matter) are free float adjusted. Meaning space x is selling less than 5% of the company, so it’s treated at the less than 5% of the 1.75 trillion that is reported. It will not make it a top 10 company like it would if the whole company was sold. It will be a more like $50-100 billion company depending on the exact numbers. As they sell more VTI will slowly have more.”
Essentially this will have a fairly minor impact on most people’s 401ks. If you are very concerned it may be worth checking the funds you’re invested in to see if they’re free float adjusted or not.
All of this shit is made up and money isn’t real. Give me healthcare.
This may well be the catalyst to topple this house of cards. Hold onto your butts! (And put in your shorts.)
Convenient that they scheduled a specific date for the crash
iirc they did something similar with Tesla although nowhere near as egregious. Trueanon had an episode where Liz talked about this manipulation to make everyone passively invested in Tesla and now they’re doing it even worse with SpaceX which has the absolute wildest prospectus
A $22.5 trillion addressable market, 20 trillion of which is AI, justified by the fact SpaceX leases compute time to Anthropic
An absolute dumpster fire
Does this mean people are being forced to buy Spacex stonks somehow?
Yes, I laid it out in more detail in another reply, but index funds buy shares of every company in an index (S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc.) as a way of investing in the entire market or a sector. This is seen as very safe since presumably over the long term line goes up. By waiving all of these requirements all of these hedge funds and retirement funds that use these index funds will be forced to immediately buy huge numbers of SpaceX shares and pump up the price right after the IPO and then hold the bag as the price goes back down.
Boy life has really been good to Elon, I mean sure he’s failed upwards, his exes hate him, his kids hate him, but he’s got a legion of nimrod fans and literally all the money in the world.
But, why? If anyone can see that shit is not really worth their stupid self-asigned price, why would they actually buy that bag of shit?
This article goes over it briefly. But it doesn’t really cover how SpaceX got the waivers other than stating that index providers are becoming less risk averse and more willing to make these exceptions. It is just with the very large size of the SpaceX IPO and the fact that it is not profitable and its valuation being based on large scale space travel soon becoming a thing and everyone getting their internet from starlink soon that this is such an extremely bad idea.
based on large scale space travel soon becoming a thing
Of all the stupid business plans… I really do not understand this. Who the fuck wants to go to “space”? There’s nothing there. literally no there there. Elon Musk has not even been “there”. Has a single person ever gone twice in a recreational capacity?
More fun to go to IMAX or roller coaster.
and everyone getting their internet from starlink
My understanding is that from a technical perspective this is implausible but at least it kind of makes sense as a desire. A powerful wfi router in the sky.
Even if it were technically plausible, the telecom monopolies being as they are, it would be a long slow row to hoe displacing them.
Of all the stupid business plans… I really do not understand this. Who the fuck wants to go to “space”?
Mars bases and colonization is what Musk tries to sell. Similarly asteroid mining, data centers and factories in space, and massively increased rollout of satellites. All of these are stupid because they all rely on massively over-inflating the upsides and really thoroughly underestimating the costs and expenses of doing things in space, even if we could theoretically put some of these things up there. The only plausible part of the plan that makes sense is increased demand for satellites, but that includes a lot of double-dealing, since Starlink is going to be a supposed driver of that.
and everyone getting their internet from starlink
Similarly I don’t think it is theoretically impossible. I have not looked at the numbers or how much of the electromagnetic spectrum that that would require with current technology, nor have I seen anyone else try to address it. But my feeling is that this is unlikely to work at that scale and would be prohibitively expensive to keep such a large covering of satellites in low earth orbit, aside from other issues like making ground based astronomy impossible and risk of space debris. I think this is the same thing as everything else, of just really trying to low ball and ignore the actual costs and just rely on the idea of “Musk launches a few more satellites and everyone can just get internet everywhere and we don’t have to maintain all of this pesky ground based infrastructure like wires and fiber”
I heard on a podcast recently that universal Starlink implausible due to limits on how much radio frequencies are available. That all the signals required to really saturate a geographic area with lots of users would create too much noise and conflicts. (That’s how I understood it, do not quote me!)
That was what I was referring to with the electromagnetic spectrum. That is likely the case, but theoretically if they could get other parts of the spectrum reallocated and higher frequency transmissions. It might be theoretically possible in the abstract.
I just wish that the billionaires lining up to shoot themselves into space on shoddily constructed hardware could find a less ecologically devastating way to do it, like maybe a really damn big trebuchet.
I think it’s worth the hit to the atmosphere.
Ever since I was a kid I wanted to go to space. But only because I loved and still love science
Sure some people would go if available “too see”. But then you go for 60 mins have your fun bouncing around. And?
The most popular kind of general travel destinations (as in you go to a specific facility and pretty much stay there) as far as ive seen are “resorts”. People like them because favorable exchange rate allows them the exploit workers and resources above their usual status. You go and have an inclusive package you dont need to worry about. Just eat, get drunk, sit in the sun, have sex, hang with friends, dance, read, swim, read, enjoy the view… Servants clean up and cater to your needs and all local people are generally expected to be submissive and accomidating. It requires massive labor to create, maintain and staff these palaces.
As vacations go, bopping around in zero g has little appeal. Most people travel to escape their real life with something easy.
And idk not to be a spoil sport but it isn’t like you’re “being in science”. You are just as much experiencing science at ~1G everyday. All of life is science. Drop a rock on your toe: science.
everyone getting their internet from starlink soon that this is such an extremely bad idea.
Literally dotcom bubble 2.0
Well at least copper and fiber doesn’t deorbit and can be used for decades.
Honestly, I have not looked too deeply into how SpaceX got all of these waivers. I am guessing there are enough people holding equity in SpaceX with influence that can pull strings to get their exit liquidity. And they can try to justify it to rubes as SpaceX being the super future company that should be treated specially (It bought xAI, and is trying to sell itself as the future of internet through starlink and having control of all space travel when we all start moving to space and Mars bases any day now)
So it’s the funds’ managers bankrupting their own funds? Just openly stealing from the company you manage by using all the company funds to buy magic beans from your cousin?
Hmm, classic
My understanding is that it is the index managers not the fund managers. Indicies started just as nice ways to track the market or sectors in one number (which is why in reporting and checking on the market you will see those numbers quoted). When an index fund decides to track an index and define and market themselves as doing it, the fund is legally obligated to follow the index. Several analysts at the FT has been complaining about how much power this gives the people in charge of the indicies and that most people haven’t really caught on to.
Edit: to make it clear guys at something like Standards and Poor (S&P) decide on what to include in the index and the rules around it and then someone at a company like Blackrock or Vanguard markets an index fund that will track that index to investors. So in this hypothetical, it is S&P screwing over Vanguard investors.
Dunno, idk how the market works
:monke-to-monke-communication:
I think there are about to be about a million explainers on every type of media about this stuff. Like in 2020 when everyone learned about supply chains.
For how long has the game been rigged? This is just further proof that none of it means anything, that even more of the rules can be changed at any time to benefit the haves at the expense of the have-nots.
The shark has been jumped long ago, but the shit keeps getting more and more brazen.
Always has been. They’ve just utilized people’s complacency to unabashedly take a more than ever before.
For how long has the game been rigged?
Since March 20th 1602
my dad has money invested in this im not even joking all i can do is say “the stock market is a casino never bet what you cant afford to lose” but then again hes got retirement from like 3 sources so hes insulated
My brother’s 401k lost half its value in the 2008 crash and, despite the latest meteoric rise in stock, he never got it back. Now I see how it happened. You might want to cash out while you still can.
You might want to cash out while you still can.
What does that even mean though?
The financial hit you take from cashing in your 401k now, will be less than the loss you’ll suffer when the shite hits the economic fan again.
For a 401k or similar? Move all your shit to indexed bond funds, most likely. You will just barely break even on inflation, but the crash shouldn’t completely decimate your retirement account. Then again, with the petrodollar on its way out (inshallah), I don’t even know that this is valid advice anymore.
I wonder if anyone sells delayed annuities where you pay for it now but don’t collect til normal retirement age?
not sure what OP meant, but depending on what your retirement account looks like, control wise, you can “rebalance” your assets to the lowest risk funds. generally those include money market funds, which are highly liquid and tend to only “grow” at or under 1% and their management fees eat even a piece of that. they have pretty strict requirements of diversification and the asset classes are all shit like currencies, treasury bonds, short term secured loans, etc. i think even during the GFC 2007-2008 it was a huge deal that some of the money market funds from banks that went under dropped 2-3% during the crisis and that exacerbated panic since these funds aren’t supposed to “break” (decrease in value at all) even during a total shitshow. my understanding is that part of the treasury / TARP bailout was to cover that 2-3% loss even. of course, if congress ever did the thing where they let the government default, that would probably make those funds go haywire and probably induce a coup because the capitalist class relies heavily on treasury bonds.
one could try to actually cash out early, but the taxes owed on early disbursements from retirement accounts are generally prohibitive since retirement accounts are built around deferred taxation. so you basically take a lot off the top if you do that.
anyway, all this assumes like the dollar doesn’t become worthless or there isn’t a revolution, because then all bets are off and what would a bag of cash in hand be worth then anyway? more or less than a bag of potatoes?
Suddenly I’m glad I just changed jobs, since it allowed me to rollover my 401k into an IRA and I can actually pick non-shit funds or just hold it in cash for a minute
rollover my 401k into an IRA
TELL THEM HOW THE IRA MADE YOU INVEST ANYWAY IN THE FREE AND FALLING STOCKS OF THE MARKETS
The only correct place to rollover
Pull out 401(k) and eat the fees probably.
lmao
They are really slaughtering all their golden geese right now.
So… pull out my 401k?
How?
It’s all Trump Bux now, he’s enmeshed, now Elon is enmeshing. Gross. It’s all so gross.
So deeply irresponsible
so they’re cutting the requirements to join the stock exchange so SpaceX can IPO?
They are cutting the requirements for inclusion in index funds. It is not the trading on the stock exchange. Index funds are supposed to track various indicies (e.g. S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, etc.) as a way of passively investing in the entire market or a sector of the market. This is a common thing to include in retirement funds and other conservative portfolios, because you are assuming you are tracking the whole market, so it is really safe if the line keeps going up over the long term. By waiving all of these rules to include SpaceX in the indicies, it is a way to force all of these funds to dump a bunch of money into SpaceX immediately after the IPO to immediately inflate the price and provide exit liquidity for current shareholders that worry that the inflated price wont continue long after the IPO and shares selling more openly on the market.
Edit: TLDR it is a way to force all these retirement and hedge funds to dump a bunch of money into SpaceX shares and be a bag holder after the share price almost immediately spikes as they buy it, and then deflates afterward.
Edit: TLDR it is a way to force all these retirement and hedge funds to dump a bunch of money into SpaceX shares and be a bag holder after the share price almost immediately spikes as they buy it, and then deflates afterward.
So it’s a pump and dump but instead of using hype and fomo to lure the bag holders, Elon is bribing the indices to passively make index funds the bag holders.
In other words, helps the investors but fucks the workers?
Fucks everyone but musk and people already onboard. No one who doesn’t already have money in spacex will benefit from this
Well, it helps SpaceX investors and hurts other investors which includes worker’s retirement investments.
How big is this when compared to the rest of the market though? Like there are so many other businesses, won’t that dilute it? Obviously it’s no justification to just say there is lots of money so it’s OK to give a bunch to Elon Musk.
Say I have my 401k which is currently $1000. Assuming that SpaceX, idk, goes out of business immediately after IPO, or every pre-IPO investor pulls out, or whatever is the worst case scenario, what’s the damage?
Probably only a few percent. I am looking for the numbers, and from the FT, this IPO is only a ~4% stake that SpaceX is claiming should be worth 75 billion of his claimed valuation 1.75 trillion. And I can’t find the reference, but I think I have seen up to some 30-40% of the IPO shares would need to be bought by ETFs if it is included on the major indices. But since these large index funds are valued in the several trillions, it wont seriously tank the value. The real issue is that this is directly showing an issue several analysts have been raising at the FT for a while. Since so much of the investment market has gone into the ETFs and other forms of index funds, there is a huge amount of power given to these indices. And these funds are basically hostage to the whims of the people that manage the indices. The other thing is that that is enough of the shares that the value can get very inflated and allow people currently holding SpaceX equity to make out very very well above even its current inflated price.
