Author: Steven Erlanger
Published on: 01/03/2026 | 00:00:00

AI Summary:
Iran’s Regime May Survive, but the Middle East Will Be Changed A badly weakened Iran will no longer intimidate or threaten its neighbors in the same way. The regional impact could be comparable to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Iran retains the capacity to strike back against American and Israeli airstrikes, and the war’s trajectory is unclear. Iran’s decline began two years ago, with Israel’s tough and sustained response to an invasion by Hamas from Gaza. Israel eroded Iran’s air defenses, defeated Hezbollah and profited from the Syrian revolution that overthrew Bashar al-Assad. But now, with the ayatollah’s death and intense destruction from the air, Iran’ sway has ebbed further, with uncertain consequences that will play out over months and even years. Iran will try to rapidly increase the cost for Israel, the United States and its Gulf allies to force them to back down before this succeeds in destabilizing the regime. Increasing its attacks on Arab countries in the gulf is risky but may be Iran’s best chance to shorten the war — since it could prompt the Arab world to pressure the U.S. And Israel to end their campaign. A wider war would have considerable longer-term impact on oil prices and inflation. But in the longer term, an Iran wrapped up in its own domestic problems will not have the energy or resources to meddle in the region. That could open up new opportunities for Lebanon and the Palestinians, as it has already done for the Syrians. A new and more moderate government could take office in Israel after elections later this year. President Trump continues to encourage the Iranian people to rise up to overthrow the regime. “Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” says Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO. In 1991, during the first gulf war, President George H.W. Bush issued a similar call to the Iraqi people. Israel and the United States declared that their attacks would pave the way for regime change in Iran. Trump urged Iranians to “take over” their government, but questions remained about how much effort his administration would put into changing the Iranian government.

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