Profits and losses across Russian industries vary widely by sector, according to the early data from 2025. Not only has the overall “profit pie” shrunk, but what’s left of it is being carved up very differently from the pattern seen in past years: banks and businesses tied to military contracts continue to benefit, while much of the rest of the economy is faltering. Retail has slumped sharply as Russians tighten their belts. Construction firms are teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, with employees petitioning Putin for help. Coal mining is in such steep decline that a repeat of the miners protests seen in the 1990s would not come as a surprise. In regions such as Tver, wage arrears have soared. In short, in year four of the full-scale war, not even close ties to the state act as a guarantee of financial stability.

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Before the full-scale invasion, [Russian] retail businesses earned three times more than they do now — 7 trillion rubles in 2021, compared to just 2.8 trillion in 2024. The collapse is mirrored elsewhere.

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Meanwhile, commercial banks saw their combined profits surge by 50%, from 2.3 trillion rubles to 3.4 trillion over the same period. Construction and real estate also saw a spike — though that appears to have been a last hurrah before the end of subsidized mortgages. Today, that sector is in serious trouble.

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According to [Russia’s Federal Statistics Office] Rosstat, the combined financial results of Russian enterprises in 2024 were worse than the previous year’s. Net profits for firms excluding banks and small businesses came to 30.4 trillion rubles, 7% below the 2023 figure.

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Nevertheless, in 2024 commercial banks set records for net profit for the second year in a row. The volume of loans issued to companies rose sharply, though this was mostly due to ongoing investment projects and housing construction. Mortgage lending, by contrast, grew at its slowest pace ever: loans totaled 5 trillion rubles, of which 3.7 trillion were backed by state subsidies. Although mortgage support has been significantly cut back, it still plays a decisive role in the market — without it, banks would be net losers in their dealings with borrowers. Tellingly, in March 2025, unsubsidized (“market-rate”) mortgages accounted for only 29% of total issuance (33 billion rubles), while subsidized mortgages made up 67% (224 billion rubles). In other words, the state continues to pump up the mortgage market — and the banks are making the most of it.

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In the retail sector, net profit dropped by 4 trillion rubles compared to 2021. […] This year, even nominal retail profits are expected to fall: for example, Russia’s largest retail chain, X5, saw its first-quarter net profit drop by 24%.

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Consumers are shifting to a savings-focused model. This is especially damaging for non-food retail chains, many of which have reported quarterly sales declines of 30–35% compared to last year. According to industry estimates, foot traffic in shopping centers fell 4% year-over-year, while purchases of clothing and footwear dropped 12%. Regionally, Saint Petersburg stands out in a particularly negative light: retail there ended 2024 with losses totaling 538 billion rubles.

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The problems facing Russia’s coal sector aren’t limited to prices and sanctions. Coal exports are subject to export duties that the government adjusts frequently based on global prices and the exchange rate. When it comes to exports heading eastward, nearly half the revenue is eaten up by railway transport costs, with tariffs set by the state-run Russian Railways.

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The actions of Russia’s Asian customers also have not helped. Since late 2023, China has reintroduced import duties on Russian coal while keeping Australian and Indonesian coal duty free.

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