The ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) (ACLED), an initiative that collects and then analyzes disaggregated data, recently published a report on suspected Russian sabotage activities in Europe aiming to undermine the support for Ukraine. It lists 190 incidents that inflicted physical damage and caused significant disruption, from cyberattacks to arson attacks.

… ACLED data show that more than half of all suspicious events since February 2022 occurred in 2024. Around 35% of these events were sabotage, and another 27% were unauthorized drone overflights. During the year, Russia’s steamroller offensive secured only incremental gains in Ukraine but incurred staggering losses of personnel …

Between March and May 2024, suspected Belarusian and Ukrainian recruits of Russian agents set ablaze three warehouses in Lithuania, Spain, and the UK, as well as a shopping mall in Poland. In July, three explosions involving flammable parcels occurred at warehouses in Germany, Poland, and the UK, with a fourth attempt foiled …

Even if the worst fears may prove overblown, European countries will have to reckon with the need to invest in efforts to foil sabotage attempts on both land and at sea and protect critical infrastructure. With the US apparently disengaging from the region and viewing Russia as less of a threat,48 Europe may have to make do without the US intelligence and law enforcement support that helped foil the excesses of suspected Russian activity, such as assassination attempts and flammable parcels onboard planes. Europe may not have much time to prepare for another possible wave of Russian attempts to test its resolve to stand by Ukraine and ultimately defend itself.