I don’t know much about modern air forces, but 6 jets in a single mission seems catastrophically bad.
6 jets lost, in their opening move. They had the luxury of attacking at whatever time they wanted without Pakistan knowing, but they still lost 6 jets.
Tbf Pakistan knew the attack was imminent for several days.
Also not necessarily a good sign.
Maybe the whole squadron was 5 Rafale jets & someone crashed in a parked one in a hangar back at the base.
If the number is correct or even close to that number, it’s a disaster for IAF, a major embarrassment.
It is really bad for the mission they were carrying out, launching air launched cruise and ballistic missiles from well within Indian airspace, hundreds of km away from the targets. One Rafale got shot down 140km inside Indian territory. High losses are expected, but they didn’t even get a single Pakistani jet.
I appreciate all your excellent posts on this! If you don’t mind a further question, what is the situation like for a Rafale pilot when they are targeted by these missiles? As in, how much time do they have to react, what sort of countermeasure if any did they have available?
PL-15 is a very long range radar guided missile, so time till impact varies on launch distance, and when or if it’s detected. The PL-15 has a maximum burnout velocity of over 6500kph, around Mach 5.5. However average velocity will be substantially lower than that due to aerodynamic drag after the daul pulse rocket motor has finished burning out, and at very long range air to air missiles like the AIM-120D, air launched SM-6, R-37M and the PL-15 use a quasi ballistic trajectory to maximise range. If you assume an average velocity of 3000kph and a firing distance of 150km (max range of the export variant of the PL-15, called the PL-15E is 145km, domestic variant up to 300km in extreme scenarios), and an instant launch detection, at most a pilot would have 180 seconds, or three minutes, to carry out evasive maneuvers and deploy countermeasures. However, that’s a best case scenario. Realistically a pilot will have less time, the average speed of the missile could be faster, or detection much later.
To detect a radar guided missile, modern jets have something called a radar warning receiver (RWR) to detect enemy radars, changes of frequency when being locked onto and fired upon, etc. The Rafale has a big one on the vertical stabiliser.
However, modern radar guided missiles are not only guided by the radar on the launch aircraft (semi active homing), they have their own mini radars on the missile themselves, that can lock onto a target once close enough, and can operate fully autonomously at that point (fire and forget capability). These are called active radar homing missiles, or fox threes by NATO pilots. The PL-15 is one such missile, it has a mini active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar in the nosecone.
This complicates jamming and detection efforts, as the enemy fighter can turn off their radar after a certain point, or with modern datalink capabilities, the missile can be guided by a completely different source such as an AWACS aircraft, until it gets to the point it can use its own radar. Then the RWR struggles to detect the initial launch, as the fighter launching it can have it’s radar completely off, or turn it off soon after launch. Then the RWR would only detect the missile much later, when it turns on it’s own radar. The RWR could even be jammed by the enemy, making it inoperable, leaving only the missile approach warning system to detect an incoming missile, these are usually passive systems that make use of infrared search and track technology, so if relatively short range, they were initially invented to detect incoming infrared guided missiles. As for jamming the radar of the missile itself, modern active homing missiles with mini AESA radars can even do frequency hopping, to hop onto a clean frequency, or even home in on a jamming source itself. Complex “kill chains”. This all complicates things greatly, which is why many say modern air combat is a case of see first, shoot first, win. And Pakistan has the advantage in the amount of “eyes” they have (more AWACS aircraft and more fighters with AESA radars). Of course a friendly AWACS could inform a fighter pilot of an incoming projectile once they detect it using their much more powerful radars, but they have to detect it.
For countermeasures, options available are electromagnetic jamming (already discussed that), and chaff dispensing, or even towed decoys attached to the aircraft itself, while taking evasive maneuvers to try force an energy defeat scenario (the missile runs out energy). No flares as it’s a radar guided missile. However, with modern active homing missiles with mini AESA radars, chaff and decoys no longer work as well, as the radar, despite being much smaller, is much closer to the target itself, making it easier for it to differentiate between the target and chaff or decoys. As for energy defeat, it’s quite possible, especially if the missile is not very agile to begin with, like an R-37M for instance. But that requires the pilot to be informed of the launch as it happens, to have enough time to maneuver and bleed the incoming missile of its energy. And a PL-15 is more agile than an R-37M. A direct hit is not needed, modern blast fragmentation missiles have a proximity fuse that will set off the warhead once close enough, coating the target in shrapnel.
Thank you for your expertise and thorough explaination. Ignoring the realities of the horrors of war, I have always been fascinated by the technology involved in air combat. When I was a kid I thought it would be cool to be a fighter pilot, with this sort of weaponry though I don’t envy any pilots.
Iirc, India is claiming only three “crashed”, but still
Hopefully this results in India realizing the best course of action is to declare a false victory and move on without leading to a larger war.
Unfortunately lost jets are likely to enrage, not deter India.
I read a compelling argument on Reddit, though, that both countries have strong reasons not to escalate… Here’s hoping!
There’s photo proof that at least 1 Rafale was shot down. There’s a photo of Rafale tail wreckage BS-001, which means it was the first Rafale delivered to India. Last night there was already a video of a wrecked missile launcher and wrecked French MICA missile on the ground in front of a burning jet fighter. It was either shot down by HQ-9 (Chinese S-300) SAM, or JF-17 or J-10CE jets with PL-15 (Chinese long range air to air missile). Chinese missiles took out France’s top fighter jet.
Funny thing is that the 2019 flare up between India and Pakistan, there was also fighter jet engagement. Pakistan said they shot down an Su-30MKI and an old Mig (bison?), and India claimed they shot down an F-16. The only proof was the Mig pilot was captured alive and later returned back to India. 2019 showed IAF that they needed “better” fighter jets, they think Western Jets were the best, so they quickly went for the hyped up Rafales. Just like in Ukraine, NATO wunderwaffe has proven to be overhyped, and way overpriced, when matched against an equal opponent.
The world is about to find out if public industry or private industry is really the better way to build things when public industrial militaries go up against private industrial militaries.
So far it’s not looking good for privatization. Unsurprisingly
World War One was a struggle between the old feudal systems and the newer, capitalist modes of production. The capitalists won and the first socialist nation was born out of a crumbling monarchy.
I’m hoping all this isn’t a precursor to another world war and things de-escalate. The contradictions of capitalism are becoming impossible to reconcile and it seems like it’s trying to take the world down with it.
Yes, but private profits > good, useful products!
/s
Theory: just like in Ukraine, part of the goal is to draw out military capabilities and see how they perform. Russia did everything it could to limit advanced tech deployment in the beginning of the SMO to avoid showing all its cards, but the US still gained valuable Intel on Russian capabilities. If my theory is correct that this flare up is being directed by the US, it could be partially to get Intel on the field performance of Chinese weapon systems.
France would not allow their best fighter jet to get shot down by China’s mid range fighter jets, just so Uncle Sam could get some information on Chinese military hardware. It’s a major blow to the reputation of Dassault (Rafale Manufacturer). Western military tech sales are hyped up because of their real world success on the battlefield, but they’ve always been picking on weaker armies.
Would France have any power here? The issue is whether or not India attacks Pakistan. What happens afterward is all data. My conjecture is the US has a vested interest in India attacking Pakistan, that this flare up was engineered by the US, and I am trying to understand what the US gains from it as a way of analyzing my hypothesis
Intel may be part of it, but I suspect thoy wanted to try to force conflict between China and India + thoroughly corner another Muslim country, if possible.
I suspect they had little belief Chinese tech would be on an entirely different, superior level to western tech, or they considered it a relatively unlikely worst case scenario.
I agree that the intelligence angle is only part of it. The chaos of war creates a lot of opportunities. Additionally, it can potentially shore up domestic support for Modi as a “war-time” leader, create some pretext for Indian arms mobilization, create some pretext for US “peacekeeping” forces to be deployed, etc.
I think this conflict can do a lot for the US project, which is why I think the US may be behind it.
maybe they weren’t expecting to get shot down and assumed they’d get the data without any losses
China also wants to know if their equipment performs as expected. It has, maybe even exceeding expectations.
I didn’t think China would be pushing for a conflagration to test their systems though
Indeed!
but the US still gained valuable Intel on Russian capabilities
The logistics of war being the one aspect they couldn’t hide, or intentionally had several severe fuckups.
If a singular nuke goes off over there and you see it on the news i want everyone who sees this to know what they need to do. As soon as you find out drop everything you are doing and go to the grocery store. Spend every penny you have and buy as much shelf stable food as possible.
Rice, flax seed, corn, beans, tomatoes, carrots, and peppers are nutritionally balanced when combined (have all the vitamins you need) and can be found either canned or dried. If you cant afford all of them prioritize enriched rice and peppers. Youll have calories and wont get scurvy.
Once youve spent all your money on food get home, and secure your house. If you have weapons get them ready, and ideally have a radio to listen for alerts. Barricade doors and windows. Fill your bathtub and sink and anything else you have up with drinking water.
Go online and download PDFs on edible wild plants in your area. Herbalism, etc. Print them off if you can. But even it not keep them saved you can always recharge devices later if you find solar panels.
The top killer in a situation like this will be famine. Which will cause panic. You need food and a secure place to hunker down. Radiation likely wont be an issue for anyone not near the area but worldwide famine is likely. Smoke from the fires will blot out the sun and kill crops. The reason you barricade the home is to keep desperate people from breaking in.
If you lose power btw you CAN cook rice without power. Leave it in water for 8-12 hours. It will be gritty but edible.
The goal here is to survive about a month or 2. Once famines hit most people wont last more than a few weeks. If you can survive the initial wave itll be a lot easier to survive going forward from that. At that point get in touch with other survivors and start growing food.
You’re assuming that the situation would be orderly enough for buying to still be possible - for the internet to still be accessible and online, the power grid itself to be still working, drinking water not to be contaminated and even emergency radio to be active. Most of all - the need to arm oneself, with the implicit expectation to win any confrontation.
You and I are both guilty of relying on media portrayals of a societal collapse - the likelihood everything would go according to expectations is probably nil.
I don’t think this “barricade your doors, every man for himself” thing is how you’d survive. You need the community.
Yup. Even thinking cynically, those organized in groups will be able to deprive the individualists of their stockpiles.
Working together is always the winning strategy.
Did you even read my post? I didnt make any of those assumptions thats why i stressed to drop everything and do this immediately. Everything i listed should be done within an hour or 2 of the first bomb going off. If your not in the region it went off in society isnt just gonna collapse instantly. There will be a very short window to react. i literally address many of the things you bring up in my comment. Like cooking rice in cold water, filling bathtubs and containers before taps run dry, etc.
How does me saying to have a weapon imply youll win every fight?? Its just a measure to take to improve your chances. Your certainly gonna do better with one than without.
As for emergency radio you check it regardless of if itll be working or not. You dont just assume it wont be and not bother. Thats the whole point of the post. It doesnt garuntee anything survival or otherwise it just improves your chances to take measures like this.
If you have some sort of issue with the advice im giving and want to add on to it, or correct something and offer a better alternative please do so, but why barely skim my comment and reply basically saying “nuh uh” in more words?
You ain’t surviving shit in such a situation. I’m not either - that’s guaranteed though.
In the case it actually does happen and you succeed - enjoy your survivalist fantasy.
“nuh uh”
Hurry up and get ready to react at the last minute
Its advice geared towards people who arent prepared before hand. Someone who is already prepared wouldnt need advice on what to do.
Good thinking & nicely structured, but I live in a city so I’m getting flashbanged on day 1 before the first nuke memes reach me (that is how I get my news).
Waiting until the bombs drop is silly. You should be organizing already and making sure that food-insecure people have access to the food that they need to survive. You need allies to survive. That’s what organizing is about. We are all already in a war of attrition with capital. People get displaced to make room for luxury developments all the time. People go hungry all the time. If you aren’t already cooperating with your friends and neighbors to correct this situation, you should start doing that today. Last minute panic buying random supplies isn’t going to cut it. It feels silly to quote a sci-fi story here, but “the more you share, the more your bowl will be plentiful” rings true to me.
Pretending you’re the protagonist of a fallout game isn’t going to keep you alive. I love wilderness survival and high adventure stuff, but I know it takes a village to survive long term. Learning to use a gun isn’t a bad idea either, assuming you have access to a shooting range that isn’t racist/fascist/xenophobic. Unless you have training tho, don’t bother with those expensive pieces. You’re better off spending it on something more practical for your specific situation.
This was advice geared towards people who haven’t prepared. If someone is already prepared then they wouldn’t need advice on what to do. Idk why your acting as if im somehow against organizing because i gave people a quick rundown on how to maybe survive if an unexpected global famine happens and they arent prepared for it.
A lot of people who are currently just working 60 hours a week going home passing out and repeating aren’t gonna be prepared for when this happens, but if they take a few simple steps like i described their chances of starving to death decrease a lot. Spreading this information to them is not somehow anti-community organizing, and i literally mention how they should seek out community once its safe to do so.
Yeah and I’m saying it’s bad advice. The thing we all gotta be doing is building community. Individual last minute prepping is actively harmful because it provides a false sense of security.
I don’t disagree with the premise (prep for famine), but the advice doesn’t match the situation. Its a collective problem & needs to be addressed as such especially to people who currently aren’t involved in community building endeavors.
I have a whole freezer full of dried out workout powder stuff already. Probably enough to last a whole year for me and my bf. I also have a ton of potato seed tuber things and I’m very good at making bucket potatoes 💅
But yeah idgaf about prepping for this shit if every country gets in on it then its a coin flip if you live or not unless you live in a bunker 24/7. There’s also a very likely chance that society will devolve and re-evolve very quickly by gigantic paramilitary groups forming and duking it out. Anything any one prepper can do in that situation is limited.
The real prepping is getting a bunch of commie friends good at shooting guns
I think everyones misunderstanding my post. This is specifically in relation to a LIMITED regional exchange between India and Pakistan. If theres a global exchange of nukes its entirely different. People dont seem to realize even JUST India and Pakistan doing this and nobody else launching would cause a worldwide famine within weeks.
Oh yeah thats probably true. Get good at hydroponics. Fun fact you can make your own hydroponics juice with charred wood
Hydroponics arent really viable without lots of electricity tho and even solar will be limited by smoke in the upper atmosphere and the power grid will be gone within a few days of nobody maintaining it. The smoke would dissipate and youd be able to grow food normally again within a few years, and until then you’d basically be working as if you were in a colder hardiness zone. You’d have to grow stuff that people north of you would grow normally. Grow plants that do well in shade, and dont mind the cold as much. Scavenge what you can too.
This isn’t really true, hydroponics can be done outside and on windowsills using the Kratky method en masse and for very cheap. I have a small wind power setup that adds light near my windowsill. I live in an apartment and have a little spinny thing outside on the porch, the light is indirect for my potatoes so I really needed something extra and had no power outlets nearby. Micro wind setups suck for powering your whole house but are fantastic for powering low power draw lights in low light areas. I’m high up enough and the little spinny thing connects to a battery, seems to be enough to keep my potatoes happy despite the shade.
The best solution for farming in this situation is obviously to set up a bunch of light towers on nuclear, gas, and wind power but who knows how long itd take for people to catch on to that, sensible governments like China would certainly mobilize this sort of thing and ration energy for it. The massive temperature swings would definitely pick up a lot of wind.
Well the issue is that to do hydroponics in a situation like that your not just powering lights your powering a heater to keep them warm. Since even indoors you want have central heating anymore. Thats a lot of energy idk if a mini wind setup can handle that.
Most cold weather, low power, setups require sunlight for warm, like greenhouses, and who knows how well those will work if theres a lot of smoke in the sky.
This is good advice, but I live near several major military installations and a major urban centre. My plan for this scenario is to bend over, place my head firmly between my legs and kiss my ass goodbye.
Just because one nuke goes off doesnt mean they all fly. If india and pakistan nuke eachother i doubt other nations would immediately join in. Its not like it would be totally unexpected so like if China picks up ICBMs on their radar over India for example i doubt they immediately launch in response.
So dont just assume your gonna get nuked too unless your in the region. The issue is that even if its just them nuking eachother itll disrupt the climate and cause mass famine globally.
Not just the mass famine, but the panic first
In the case of a limited exchange I’m quite sceptical of the study that suggested the ash would cause significant global cooling for a prolonged period of time (5 years+). I think they overestimate both the amount of ash and particulates generated and the amount of time it would remain in the upper atmosphere, alongside the extent of the resulting fires.
Thing is we already have examples of this happening from volcanoes. Look up the year without a summer, 1816.
The eruption that caused the year without summer had hundreds of times the explosive force of the entire Indian and Pakistani arsenal combined and threw almost 200 cubic kilometres of ash and tephra very high into the atmosphere. It was an event on an entirely different scale.
Oh i think i see where the misunderstanding is. So with nukes the ash they say will cause the cooling isnt from the explosions. What they think will happen is the bombs act as a spark which causes massive wildfires that engulf the entire region. Thats the ash they are concerned with not the ash from the initial explosions.
So rather than thinking of it in terms of explosions think of it in terms of the entire subcontinent burning for weeks.
No, I do get that, but the emissions from extensive fires across the region are still substantially different from what you’d see in the kind of event we have seen produce actual global cooling events like the 1815 eruption.
I’m willing to believe that it’s possible, but I think the initial study suggesting it could happen makes some overly broad assumptions and I’ve seen subsequent studies fail to reach the same conclusion with similar analysis.
Can I recommend also, should you ever find yourself in this situation to think of others too. If you are selfless enough to care about your neighbour’s life more than your own; even about the lives of people you haven’t met; or more easily, how about the children near you; what a wonderful thing! If you can care enough to share what you get your hands on, and be as little prejudiced as possible to others looking for food (e.g. in that first panicked rush), though you’re scared of running out yourself, that’s so good!
But not just for the love you have for your fellow (wo)man. For society: if most people act generously and kindly, and with restraint, then everyone benefits, including yourself.
Excellent write up, food and water are really the critical thing to focus on in the immediate aftermath.
suicide
If you can survive the initial wave itll be a lot easier to survive going forward from that. At that point get in touch with other survivors and start growing food.
You all can have fun with that, best of luck, but if shit gets that bad I’m killing myself.
I see people say this a lot. Im curious why. Idk like for me life fucking sucks as it is now under capitalism and a simple farming life doesnt seem that bad. Even like lack of access to modern medicine doesnt really change since i dont have that now anyway. Its hard to imagine anything being worse than the way the world is now.
I’ve been depressed and suicidal for a long time. I’m tired. I’m also trans. I don’t know any trans people irl and am not sure how I’d find them. No hormones right now either. I need access to healthcare. tbh this site is the only thing keeping me half sane.
Also I think you underestimate how difficult farming etc is going to be. Especially with climate change and a break down of infrastructure. Collapse is going to be awful and I can’t deal with any more awfulness.
cw mental health, self-harm
I’m thinking about it while everything is still “fine”
knowing my luck, I’ll end up sleeping through the nuclear apocalypse.
But on that first point, it’s a good idea to spend a little extra each time you go shopping (just $5-10 if you can afford it) to grab some emergency canned food. It’s how I managed to save up a stockpile. Much better than rushing out and panic buying at the same time as everyone else. It’ll be a bloodbath.
Four confirmed at the moment. Two Rafales, and two Sukhoi Su-30MKIs or Mikoyan MiG-29s
Is that acknowledged by India yet?
I think they admitted the Rafales which france did as well.
Turns out that, in the end, Pakistan was the real lion all along
Ghost of KievGhost of Islamabad.
Nukes goin’ off to the left of me,
Nukes goin’ off to the right.
Here I am, cooked in the middle with you…
“And we will all go together when we go!”
Fighting between two nuclear powers. Not worrying at all.
I have several bottle caps in my go-bag!!
