The immediate costs of Donald Trump’s trade war are fairly clear. Prices for imported goods are rising while economic growth is slowing.

Manufacturers are slashing orders, small businesses with Chinese suppliers are on the brink of insolvency, interest rates are rising, Americans’ retirement savings are bleeding value, and consumers are losing confidence.

The severity of these consequences remain to be seen. But even the administration’s defenders concede that Trump’s tariffs will entail some economic pain in the near-term. The real question concerns the long-term impacts of Trump’s misgovernance.