Image is from Wikipedia’s article on the war..

I’ve wanted to cover Myanmar for a while now but haven’t had the needed knowledge to write much more than “This situation really sucks.” After doing a little reading on the situation, I feel even more confused. A decent analogy is the Syrian Civil War, at least while Assad was in power (though it’s still pretty true today) - many different opposition groups, some co-operating with the United States, others not. The main government supported partially by an anti-American superpower, but who could live with that government collapsing if there are deals to be made with the group coming into power. A conflict kept going and exploited at least partially by the United States and other imperial core powers, though with plenty of genuine domestic animosity and desires for political independence.

Recently, the Myanmar government - the mainstream media uses “junta”, which is probably accurate despite the connotations - has promised elections at the end of 2025. This doesn’t seem likely to happen, and even if it did, how this would work in a country as war-torn as Myanmar is unclear. The government is losing territory and soldiers at a quick pace; they now hold only 21% of the country, though that 21% does at least comprise many of the cities. It’s difficult to get a handle on the number of people affected because civil wars and insurgencies have been ongoing in some shape or form for decades, but we’re talking at least millions displaced and thousands of civilians killed.

Here’s a comment by @TheGenderWitch@hexbear.net from fairly recently that covers the situation in Myanmar:

comment

The military government of Myanmar is losing to the Rebel Groups, and badly. https://www.voanews.com/a/myanmar-s-rebels-closing-in-around-junta-into-fifth-year-of-civil-war-/7958145.html

somethings really afoot though, news about myanmar from western outlets and channels have suddenly all remembered myanmar exists and written quite a lot about them in the last few days. Its suspicious, it could be capitalists trying to signal their want for US involvement in the civil war. It could also be a targeted propaganda campaign already pre planned in order to make sure people are clued into the conflict.

I think this seems to be another Assad situation. The Military government is pretty unpopular domestically and is losing quite a bit of ground. I would be surprised if they lasted to 2027. Supplied by both Russia and China, theyve been able to keep some flow of weapons, but are suffering a lot from manpower issues. Conscription has been enacted, but conscripts are a poor replacement for trained soldiers. According to reports, they only hold about 21% of the land and are losing lots of territory. They also have extended their emergency rule for another 6 months, throwing doubt on the ability to follow through with their 2025 election. They’ve lost large amounts of territory, thousands of soldiers, and 2 regional commands. They’re not dead yet though, as they have some ability to retake some territory and win some battles, but again 21%. Rebels currently are making steady progress towards the second largest city in the country.

while I don’t like the rebels, they are western aligned, they have popular support and are allied to many of Myanmar’s ethnic minority defence groups. Im wondering who really has the power in this situation though, since many of the gains seem to be made by the Ethnic armies, not the NUG. This revolutionary energy could be fueled to establish a socialist federation, but won’t, and the popular revolutionary energy is fueled toward the NUG. It’ll probably be another pro-west bourgeoisie democracy. It will probably then turn against the ethnic rebels and we’ll end up basically where myanmar was pre coup. Probably will have a strong military influence on politics as well, since the rebel forces seem to be made up of officers and very little political groups. By then, people will be extremely tired of war and more likely to accept any conflict resolution than another civil war. In the midst of “It Happened” stands a stronger, unmovable “nothing ever happens”. Would be neat if the Communist Party of Burma could somehow come out on top, but they have only around 1000 soldiers and don’t control a large amount of territory.

China’s interests in the region are still secure, but siding with the Junta is a bad idea, one I understand though. China doesn’t want a western aligned power to take over a china aligned state, and is trying to make sure their economic investments in the area are protected and their mineral income is continued. They have deep ties with many Ethnic Minority states, especially on their border, and the NUG forces, mostly again to protect infrastructure investments and keep the minerals flowing. They might flip back to the NUG as the Junta starts collapsing over the next year or so, especially since the new US administration seems to be really cutting back on foreign aid. The General in charge of the rebel government forces complained quite a bit about how much aid ukraine got and how much he wanted that aid. He was basically begging for anti aircraft systems “like in ukraine” lol. China could definitely swoop in and back the rebels, which while hurting their reputation, is probably the best move long term. China’s only interest is to keep Myanmar from being pro-west, keep control of Myanmar’s mineral flow, and protect other investments in the area.

Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

  • Redcuban1959 [any]@hexbear.netEnglish
    1·
    3 months ago

    AP Exclusive: US and Israel look to Africa for moving Palestinians uprooted from Gaza - AP News

    Article

    The U.S. and Israel have reached out to officials of three East African governments to discuss using their territories as potential destinations for moving Palestinians uprooted from the Gaza Strip under President Donald Trump’s proposed postwar plan, American and Israeli officials told The Associated Press.

    The contacts with Sudan, Somalia and the breakaway region of Somalia known as Somaliland reflect the determination by the U.S. and Israel to press ahead with a plan that has been widely condemned and raised serious legal and moral issues. Because all three places are poor, and in some cases wracked by violence, the proposal also casts doubt on Trump’s stated goal of resettling Gaza’s Palestinians in a “beautiful area.”

    Officials from Sudan said they have rejected overtures from the U.S., while officials from Somalia and Somaliland told The Associated Press that they were not aware of any contacts.

    Under Trump’s plan, Gaza’s more than 2 million people would be permanently sent elsewhere. He has proposed the U.S. would take ownership of the territory, oversee a lengthy cleanup process and develop it as a real estate project.

    The idea of a mass transfer of Palestinians was once considered a fantasy of Israel’s ultranationalist fringe. But since Trump presented the idea at a White House meeting last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed it as a “ bold vision.”

    Palestinians in Gaza have rejected the proposal and dismiss Israeli claims that the departures would be voluntary. Arab nations have expressed vehement opposition and offered an alternative reconstruction plan that would leave the Palestinians in place. Rights groups have said forcing or pressuring the Palestinians to leave could be a potential war crime. Still, the White House says Trump “stands by his vision.”

    Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a secret diplomatic initiative, U.S. and Israeli officials confirmed the contacts with Somalia and Somaliland, while the Americans confirmed Sudan as well. They said it was unclear how much progress the efforts made or at what level the discussions took place.

    Separate outreach from the U.S. and Israel to the three potential destinations began last month, days after Trump floated the Gaza plan alongside Netanyahu, according to the U.S. officials, who said that Israel was taking the lead in the discussions.

    Israel and the U.S. have a variety of incentives — financial, diplomatic and security — to offer these potential partners. It is a formula that Trump used five years ago when he brokered the Abraham Accords — a series of mutually beneficial diplomatic accords between Israel and four Arab countries.

    The White House declined to comment on the outreach efforts.

    The offices of Netanyahu and Ron Dermer, the Israeli Cabinet minister and Netanyahu confidant who has been leading Israel’s postwar planning, also had no comment.

    But Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a longtime advocate of what he calls “voluntary” emigration of Palestinians, said this week that Israel is working to identify countries to take in Palestinians. He also said Israel is preparing a “very large emigration department” within its Defense Ministry.

    Sudan

    The North African country was among the four Abraham Accord nations that agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020.

    As part of the deal, the U.S. removed Sudan from its list of state supporters of terrorism, a move that gave the country access to international loans and global legitimacy. But relations with Israel never took off as Sudan plunged into civil war between government forces and the RSF paramilitary group.

    The conflict has been marked by atrocities, including ethnically motivated killing andremoved, according to the U.N. and rights groups. The International Criminal Court is investigating alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, and then-President Joe Biden’s administration in January said the RSF and its proxies were committing genocide.

    The U.S. and Israel would be hard-pressed to persuade Palestinians to leave Gaza, particularly to such a troubled country. But they could offer incentives to the Khartoum government, including debt relief, weapons, technology and diplomatic support.

    Two Sudanese officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic matter, confirmed that the Trump administration has approached the military-led government about accepting Palestinians.

    One of them said the contacts began even before Trump’s inauguration with offers of military assistance against the RSF, assistance with postwar reconstruction and other incentives.

    Both officials said the Sudanese government rejected the idea. “This suggestion was immediately rebuffed,” said one official. ”No one opened this matter again.”

    Military chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan told an Arab leaders’ summit last week in Cairo that his country “categorically rejects” any plan that aims to transfer “the brotherly Palestinians from their land under whatever justification or name.”

    Somaliland

    Somaliland, a territory of over 3 million people in the Horn of Africa, seceded from Somalia over 30 years ago, but it is not internationally recognized as an independent state. Somalia considers Somaliland part of its territory.

    Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, has made international recognition a priority.

    An American official involved in the efforts confirmed that the U.S. was “having a quiet conversation with Somaliland about a range of areas where they can be helpful to the U.S. in exchange for recognition.”

    The possibility of U.S. recognition could provide an incentive for Abdullahi to back away from the territory’s solidarity with the Palestinians.

    The United Arab Emirates, another Abraham Accord country that has developed strong ties with Israel, once had a military base in Somaliland and maintains commercial interests there, including a port. The territory’s strategic location, in the Gulf of Aden waterway near Yemen, home to the Houthi rebel group, could also make it a valuable ally.

    Over the years, Somaliland has been lauded for its relatively stable political environment, contrasting sharply with Somalia’s ongoing struggles amid deadly attacks by al-Qaida-linked militant group al-Shabab. Since 1991, Somaliland has maintained its own government, currency and security structures. Still, it has one of the lowest income levels in the world.

    An official in Somaliland, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media, said his government has not been approached and is not in talks about taking in Palestinians.

    Somalia

    Somalia has been a vocal supporter of the Palestinians, often hosting peaceful protests on its streets in support of them. The country joined the recent Arab summit that rejected Trump’s plan and seems like an unlikely destination for Palestinians, even if they did agree to move.

    Sambu Chepkorir, a lawyer and conflict researcher in Nairobi, Kenya, said it is difficult to understand why Somalia would want to host Palestinians given the country’s strong support for Palestinian self-rule.

    “The realignments keep changing, and so maybe there is a hidden agenda,” Chepkorir said.

    A Somali official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media, said the country had not been approached about taking in Palestinians from Gaza and there had been no discussions about it.