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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to Predictions@lemmy.caEnglish · 2 years ago

Biden will be the 2024 Democratic Nominee

manifold.markets

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Biden will be the 2024 Democratic Nominee

manifold.markets

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to Predictions@lemmy.caEnglish · 2 years ago
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Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
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Resolved NO. The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution. If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.
  • Troy@lemmy.ca
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    3 months ago

    Well, this was first correct, then incorrect :)

    • copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deOP
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      3 months ago

      I find it very limiting to think in terms of correct/incorrect. Probabilities are a better paradigm.

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